Bermuda is the most stable country on earth, according to two visiting German scientists.

And this is why they have chosen the Island as the centre of their extensive research into global climate patterns, the subject of much concern today.

"It is the best place to show whether sea level is changing as opposed to the past,'' marine geologist Professor Dieter Meischner said.

"Bermuda just sat there for the last half a million years,'' his colleague Prof. Rudi Vollbrecht added.

While the world's scientists believe we are sitting at the beginning of a new treacherous ice age, many believe the much-talked about unnatural global warming taking place is counteracting the onset of extreme cold. But how long the effect will last, they do not know.

One thing Prof. Meischner is predicting is catastrophic flooding around the world in the next few years which could seriously affect Bermuda. Flooding in enclosed Harrington Sound or anywhere else surrounded by high cliffs could lead to erosion and then the collapse of the cliffs, which was why a widening of Flatts Inlet had been looked at. Sea-level areas such as the airport could simply be covered in water.

Dr. Wolfgang Sterrer noted there had been some reported rock slides around Harrington Sound.

Research to determine the extent and impact of global warming has been hampered by the difficulty in determining actual rises in sea level in particular countries over the centuries due to the shifting of land masses.

But as Prof. Meischner explains: "The difference between Bermuda and the rest of the world is that Bermuda is a stable dip stick. This volcano it sits on has remained stable -- it has not shifted up and down. So now we use Bermuda as a dip stick -- a tide gauge.'' Prof. Meischner and his University of Gottingen colleague Dr. Vollbrecht compare sea levels of countries worldwide with Bermuda's to come up with realistic assessments of the rate the world's oceans are rising.

"Sea level has taken on a new urgency today,'' Prof. Meischner said. "Is human activity such as burning fossil fuels having a great impact on the climate and overriding natural changes (towards an ice age)? And how does the whole thing fit together? Prof. Vollbrecht added, "Should we take action and be worried or are these things balancing each other out? And how long will the effect last? We are sitting at the beginning of a big experiment.

'' Recent patterns suggest sea level is rising to new levels, including in Bermuda, but scientists do not really know why and how long the trend will continue.

Scientists have found there has been a major surge in sea level every 10,000-15,000 years -- the largest iceberg (100-km long) ever was recently sighted. Ten to 15 thousand years is considered short-term for a sea level rise.

"Why all of a sudden is so much ice sliding into the ocean? Is sea level going up because ice is melting because of the greenhouse effect or because of something else?,'' Prof. Meischner asked.

He noted that glaciers can slide due to massive build up of ice forcing them into the water or by melting taking place at their base. So you get rises in sea level in cold periods and warm periods.

A scientific theory is the sea level surge may trigger an ice age -- when ice plates cover entire continents such as North America. An ice age would be triggered by huge masses of ice supplying the oceans, increasing the amount of sunlight reflected off the ocean's surface, thus reducing the amount of heat trapped in the earth's surface.

Over the last decade Prof. Meischner has been conducting sea level research in Bermuda and its surrounding waters.

In enclosed Harrington Sound, he examines sediment, life within it, and development of marine systems over the last 12,000 years. He also travels around to other critical points on the Island where he takes sea level measurements. And he plunges to depths of 400 metres in submersibles to what were once coral reef systems hundreds of thousands of years ago but died off as the sea level rose -- coral reefs can only survive close to the ocean's surface because they need light.

Having just returned from Barbados, also part of the project, he explains Barbados has risen over the years on a wedge of sediment to the point it has been uplifted. It is in fact 250 metres higher than it was half a million years ago while Bermuda has remained relatively stable.

By using stable Bermuda to compare sea levels, the two scientists can seek to determine how other places on the earth's crust have moved.

"We use Bermuda as a standard -- a scale for movements in other parts of the world. It is the most stable place we know of,'' Prof. Meischner said.

The two professors will be conducting a seminar on their work -- "Harrington Sound from the Ice Age to Today'' -- tonight at 7.30 p.m. in the Aquarium Hall CLUES TO SEA LEVEL CHANGE -- Visiting German marine geologists Dr. Rudi Vollbrecht (left) and Prof. Dieter Meischner inspect a rock -- part of an extinct coral reef system -- which was fetched off Bermuda by the submersible Alvin. They are giving a lecture on "Harrington Sound from the Ice Age to Today'' at the Aquarium tonight.