Markets drop again on more tech volatility
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down five percent since the year began.
The Nasdaq Composite Index, which is dominated by high tech stocks, is off nearly six percent. Since these are two of the most predominate indexes used as benchmarks comparisons, any investor whose portfolio outpaced them can feel rather good. The reality is, however, that for many ordinary investors this has been their worst investing year since 1994. Just for general information, the investing year 1994, like 1990 and 1987, were very difficult years for most investors with most returns ending in negative territory. For instance, analysis of any mutual fund's performance for 1994 for the most part would be defined by how little it managed lose compared to its peer group, since almost every fund took a hit that year. Those that lost the least, generally, have been excellent investments long-term.
And early Friday morning as I write this column, the global markets are in for another very rough day, with the NASDAQ futures down 100 points this morning at limit down. This is a threshold at which the Chicago Mercantile Exchange halts trading of index futures. Read, they could fall even further! We won't know how the day will end up, 'til it ends. Now there is an astute statement for you; however, many, many mutual funds and tech stocks have taken 25 percent drops on the news that Intel, a leading long-term tech related stock is cautioning slower earnings in the future.
A GLANCE AT OUR MOCK PORTFOLIO Taking a look at our mock portfolio as of Thursday, September 22, we see that all related industries have been punished on these fears of a slowing economy and consumer consumption.
Oil prices have doubled in a year, not good news for Bermuda. You may have to consider public transportation instead of a gas-guzzler. The Euro is really struggling to hold against other currencies, making European trading falter.
Analysts are at a loss to explain EXXON value, given oil price volatility. The only other stocks holding their own, GE, Berkshire and AIG are more related to financial and insurance which are very strong.
Leading analysts are warning that because the stock markets rose so fast most years through the 1990's, the market cannot continue to climb at this same breakneck pace. We have to manage investor expectations to think that a rate of return of ten to 12 percent is a good thing, not 25 percent or higher. Some hedge fund managers have divested their portfolios complete of tech stocks; but, they have short memories, we still remember how badly they were burned this year; their tactics effected almost everyone.
MONEY CONTINUES TO MAKE MONEY Most amazingly, in spite of these discouraging numbers, Wall Street continues to wage war between themselves for top money talent (investment managers, analysts, etc). Credit Sues Group forked up $30,000,000 (that's million) a year for a specialist in tech mergers and stock offerings even though volume is off 50%. Investment firms and brokerage houses have always been known for big spending habits both corporately (and personally); now, they really do things in style by hiring big name entertainers for investment conferences.
With these kinds of compensation packages being paid, literally, on the backs of the small investors (recall that the fees charged by the funds themselves to manage your money pay all overhead and personnel costs), it is no wonder that investors still feel that they are being had.
To quote the Wall Street Journal security analysts are always preaching caution and talking about levels of risk and the downside potential for the companies they cover. Now we are in a time when Wall Street should be giving itself that same kind of advice, and it isn't. And why should it? Healthy trading volumes have contributed to record-breaking years for many companies, including Fidelity and Merrill Lynch.
Having said that there are literally thousands of genuine, caring financial advisors who shepherd your life savings through the market landmines, helping you arrange your financial matters by reviewing client needs and providing solutions, thus bringing you financial security over time. Many of these same professionals have joined together in the United States, Bermuda, and many other countries in the non-profit membership group, The Financial Planning Association. This organization is committed to promoting and setting very high standards of professionalism through continuing education, networking, and consumer financial information.
These financial professionals come from all arenas, law, insurance, accounting, investment analysts, financial planners, real estate, etc. Many have licenses specific to their field. Some are also Certified Financial Planners and CFP candidates. Worldwide the CFP mark has become the standard for working with clients. Recently, in an unofficial statement of enormous breadth, Merrill Lynch, one of the largest investment houses in the world, has advised its sales staff that they have five years in which to complete and pass the Certified Financial Planners Standardized exam and become licensed CFPs. Client's expect and deserve more; in the future, it may not be enough to be just a financial advisor. But, you the consumer benefit.
FINANCIAL PLANNING ASSOCIATION/BERMUDA LUNCHEON MEETING, SEPTEMBER 28, 2000 AT THE ROYAL BERMUDA YACHT CLUB, 12.30 p.m.
KEYNOTE SPEAKER: W. William A. Woods LLB Members - $30 Non-members - $40 Payment made at the door.
KEYNOTE SPEAKER William Woods, CEO, came to the Bermuda Stock Exchange in the early 1990 and has helped position the BSX as one of the world's leading, fully electronic, stock exchanges. William is an advisor to the Minister of Telecommunications and E-Commerce in Bermuda and assisted in drafting the Electronic Transactions Act 1999 for the Bermuda Government.
He recently co-authored a book (with Arthur Sculley) called B2B EXCHANGES, The Killer Application in the Business-to-Business Internet Revolution.
B2B Exchanges, which are developing at Internet Speed, are catalysts for this change (where the purchasing power has shifted from the seller to the buyer) and represent a tectonic shift in the way that businesses buy and sell from each other. Transactions on B2B exchanges, in the US alone, could exceed $600 billion in annual value and generate annual revenue for the exchanges in excess of $3 billion by 2004.
BERMUDA STOCK EXCHANGE The Bermuda Stock Exchange, under William Woods, has grown to more than 300 listed securities; market cap of over $122 billion and total trading exceeded $87 billion. There are now 19 Trading Members, including four major global players! The BSX created a listing called the 'Mezzanine Market' specifically designed to assist start up E-Commerce, Bio Tech and High Tech companies raise additional private capital while pushing toward an eventual Initial Public Offering on a national market. And it is a business model that works as First Ecom.com just achieved a NASDAQ listing! Will there be more to follow, we absolutely think so.
Those professionals interested in attending the FPA monthly meeting, please email me at the address below no later than Tuesday afternoon.
Due to space constraints, preference will be given to FPA members first.
Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks or any other investments. Readers needing specific assistance should seek professional advice from their financial advisor.
Martha Myron CPA is a Bermudian, a Comprehensive Financial Planner, holds NASD Series 7 license and is a US tax practitioner. She is Programming Chair for the Financial Planning Association /Bermuda. Questions regarding this article may be sent to at Email: marthamyron y northrock.bm