tonight if, as expected, he challenges Jennifer Smith for leadership of the Progressive Labour Party.

Ms Smith's supporters were confident last night that she will be able to comfortably meet the challenge from Mr. Hodgson -- or any candidate.

Mr. Hodgson's backers are divided between those who think the leadership fight is poised on a knife-edge and those who fear he does not have the numbers to oust Ms Smith as party leader and Premier in the vote at tonight's PLP conference.

Party insiders say Ms Smith will not command the support of the majority of the 26 MPs and five senators who make up the Parliamentary block.

But the Premier is thought to command strong backing among the roughly 90 branch delegates who hold the key to the vote.

Mr. Hodgson has refused to state clearly that he will challenge Ms Smith -- whom opponents accuse of being arrogant and secretive -- but two weeks ago he revealed he would be willing to run for leader if enough party members back him.

Last night, Hodgson supporter Rolfe Commissiong said it was certain the Environment Minister will stand, and he claimed it would be a 50/50 contest.

Works and Engineering Minister Alex Scott, who stood against Ms Smith for leader five years ago and is backing her now, predicted the Ms Smith would beat any challenger.

He said: "There is the anticipation that there could be a challenge but I can go no futher unless Mr. Hodgson or anybody declares their candidacy.

"If anyone came to the fore, I believe the Premier would sway the delegates, if not totally, then very significantly. I would be surprised if she did not command a significant majority over anyone.

"If I read the delegates correctly, I get the feeling the programme, the policies and the accomplishments of the party have total support of the majority. And if there is a criticism, it is whether the Premier waves or smiles, and I don't think the delegates are bothered by that.'' A Hodgson supporter said the challenge was doomed to failure, but more optimistic backers had persuaded him that it was worth running.

See also Convention Notes Page 3 Hodgson expected to make bid for party leadership He said: "There's one camp who says you can win it by five because the people pretending to vote for her (Ms Smith) won't.

"But there is another group who says that those people who said they would back him will end up backing her so he is going to lose. I am just being realistic.'' Backbench MP Dale Butler said: "Arthur Hodgson stands a good chance. We should feel good that this is a healthy democracy which lets people challenge.'' He said delegates could vote secure in the knowledge that whatever the outcome, the party could carry on without lurching in another direction.

He said: "It's not a case of one being for independence and one against, or one is left wing and one is right wing.

"Whoever wins will get on with the best interests of the country. It's not like the press used to say about Ottiwell Simmons being president for life at the Bermuda Industrial Union.'' St. George's South MP Arthur Pitcher believes Ms Smith will win, but said he hoped Mr. Hodgson would decline to be nominated.

He said: "I think he will stand but I don't think it's a good thing. We've had talks and we are an open party and a challenge is always open to someone, but I don't agree with it.

"In two years you can't overturn something that's been done for at least 400 years. I'm hoping Mr. Hodgson, before that, refuses to run.'' Fellow backbencher Reginald Burrows said he was still in the dark on whether there would be a challenge and he said he hadn't been lobbied by either camp.

He said: "It's very difficult to say. I don't go to the city that much -- I am not in the mainstream of a lot of the action.'' Sports Minister Dennis Lister declined to answer questions about any possible election.

He said: "It's an internal matter and we will deal with it as we see fit.'' Asked whether it was still an internal matter when the Premiership of the country was at stake, he said: "It is internal.

"We have to elect who we see fit for the party, who that person is also leads the country but the process is internal.''