AIG shareholders could be wiped out after Govt. is repaid, says analyst
NEW YORK (Bloomberg) — American International Group Inc., the insurer bailed out four times by the US, will likely have no value left for private shareholders after repaying the government, Citigroup Inc. said.
"Our valuation includes a 70 percent chance that the equity at AIG is zero," said Joshua Shanker, an analyst at Citigroup, in a note to investors yesterday on the New York-based insurer.
Outgoing chief executive officer Edward Liddy is under pressure from lawmakers to sell assets to help repay the $182.5 billion rescue package that was required to prop up the insurer after losses on credit-default swaps tied to US home loans. AIG said last week that other derivatives, involving European banks, could have a "material adverse effect" on the company's results.
"The company has not been forthcoming about the sequence of events that would result in a loss" on the European contracts covering about $193 billion in assets, Shanker said. "Even a proportionally small loss could be significant."
Liddy has announced deals to raise about $6.7 billion in asset sales since the first rescue in September and said he may hold public offerings for stakes in AIG units after the company struggled to sell the businesses in their entirety. Liddy, appointed to run the company after AIG agreed to turn over a majority stake to the US, said in May he plans to step down once a successor is found.
"The CEO's motivation and ability to lead may be compromised by his preparations to transition the company's top seat to another," Shanker said.
AIG shares have declined by more than half since June 29. The stock dropped 65 cents, or 4.7 percent, yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.