Financials struggle on US exposure
TORONTO (Reuters) - It used to be that Canadian banks were a sure bet when it came to dividend hikes. Those days may be gone.
Nagging loan-loss provisions and tough market conditions will likely keep most of the banks from raising their dividends when they report quarterly results later this month.
The banks had developed a reputation for regular, reliable dividend increases, with some raising them every other quarter. But those days are not likely to return any time soon, given the turbulence rippling out from the US financial crisis.
In fact, if Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Royal Bank of Canada and Bank of Montreal do not raise their dividends later this month, it will be more than a year since each of them did.
It's not the way the banks are used to doing business. But then again financial markets are not the same either.
Higher loan-loss provisions and exposure to the hard-hit US financial markets have played a key role in keeping the bulk of Canadian banks from boosting dividends this year.
That's why Toronto-Dominion Bank was the only one to hike its dividend in the first quarter and why Bank of Nova Scotia was alone when it raised its dividend in the second. The banks' financial year ends on October 31.
"The banks are more cautious about capital preservation so you're going to see both the share repurchases and the dividend increases be very slow if any," said Robin Cornwell, president of Catalyst Equity Research.
"And, with that kind of a trend, they are going to be pretty conservative about dishing out more in the way of dividends right now."
The Toronto Stock Exchange's financial index, home to the country's "big six" banks, is down about 11 percent this year as write-downs and ongoing uncertainty about the credit crunch cloud the sector's outlook.