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Inflation running out of control in QE land

When the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets this week, attention will be focused on whether it will announce another round of quantitative easing.

The U.K. central bank should forget about printing more money through the purchase of securities. That is the last thing the economy needs. Instead, it should concentrate on the real problem: an inflation rate that is fast getting out of control.

The bank is mandated to reach a target of 2 percent. It isn't anywhere close to that. Inflation has exceeded the government's 3 percent limit for the past seven months.

The situation is only going to get worse. There is no persuasive evidence that quantitative easing, also known as QE, has done anything other than boost asset prices. And the emergency that prompted the need to ease is over: The economy is in good enough shape, thanks to the depreciation of the pound and low borrowing costs, to make restraining prices a top priority once again.

The U.K. should avoid revisiting its inflationary nightmare of the 1970s. It has to do something to reverse the trend soon or it will be too late. During the financial crisis, the inflation rate reached 5.2 percent as central banks flooded the market with cash. The conditions no longer warrant such action even if the government's budget squeeze lowers demand somewhat.

For all the talk among central-bank officials and academics about the threat of deflation, that isn't what concerns ordinary people. They are worrying about how prices are going up. They certainly haven't noticed much sign of them coming down.

The Bank of England should clamp down on inflation right now. Here's why:

One, inflation is only going to get worse. There are increases in the value-added tax scheduled for the start of next year. That will feed through into prices. Add in the impact of a weak pound, and a strengthening euro, and price increases are going to keep escalating. If the deepest recession in living memory didn't stop retailers and manufacturers from jacking up prices, they aren't going to stop now.

Two, we'll never know for sure what would have happened to the U.K. economy without quantitative easing, but all it seems to have done is push asset prices higher. Equities and bonds have soared, and even property is resilient. All of that will feed into inflation as well.

Three, the economy is growing perfectly well. The latest figures surprised everyone: Gross domestic product increased 0.8 percent in the third quarter, and 1.2 percent in the three months before that. The U.K. is doing better than could reasonably be expected after a financial crash. The emergency is over and it is safe to start worrying about prices again.

If the Bank doesn't get serious about inflation soon, people will think it has given up trying to control prices.

That would be a big mistake.

The U.K. is an inflation-prone economy. It has always struggled to keep prices in check — and in the 1970s came close to a monetary breakdown. All the historical evidence suggests that once inflation starts to rip, you need huge increases in interest rates to get it back down again. Given Britain's massive debts, that would be catastrophic.

How high does the inflation rate have to be before the Bank of England decides this is a problem? Five percent? Ten percent? It is crazy. The Bank should forget about quantitative easing and start raising interest rates now to keep a lid on inflation.

Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist and the author of "Bust," a forthcoming book on the Greek debt crisis. The opinions expressed are his own.