Insurers set for blowout quarter on low storm activity
NEW YORK (Bloomberg) — Insurers including Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and American International Group Inc. benefited from the absence of third-quarter storms this year after paying $12.5 billion in claims on Hurricane Ike in 2008.
The hurricane season has yielded a single US landfall, Tropical Storm Claudette, which struck Florida last month. By this time in 2008, Hurricane Dolly had hit Texas, Gustav came ashore in Louisiana, Tropical Storm Hanna swiped the Carolinas and Ike lashed nine states, killing more than 100 people.
The calmer quarter will boost results for insurers after the recession eroded the value of their holdings and caused customers to reduce spending. The storms last year contributed to the industry's $9.9 billion net loss in the third quarter, according to Insurance Services Office Inc.
"The insurance companies are going to have just phenomenally good earnings this quarter because of the lack of hurricanes," said Michael Paisan, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. Also, he said, "you are going to get some boost from the financial markets" as insurers' portfolios recover.
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30, with the greatest activity usually in September, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on its website. The season has so far defied NOAA's May prediction of four to seven hurricanes. Bill and Fred have been the only hurricanes to form in the Atlantic this year. Both missed the US.
"The last time we had a year that quiet was in 1997," said Jeff Masters, director of meteorology at Weather Underground Inc., an Internet weather service based in Ann Arbor, Michigan. "As far as damage goes, you can pretty much say coastal erosion from Bill is all we've had."
The 2008 hurricane season was the most expensive since 2005, when Katrina, Wilma and Rita contributed to more than $60 billion in US catastrophe claims, according to ISO.
A drop in hurricane claims, along with improved equity and credit markets, will temper insurers' ability to increase prices, Paisan said. Rates may fall as much as 10 percent when companies renew their insurance agreements in 2010, he said.
Property reinsurerslike Bermuda-based RenaissanceRe, Montpelier Re, Flagstone Re and Validus Re stand to benefit most in the third quarter, Paisan said.