Investors await bank earnings
NEW YORK (Reuters) - With Wall Street's rally stalled, this week could be crunch time as big banks' earnings, including Citigroup's, roll in and investors scrutinise reams of economic data for clues on the recovery.
Bank of America Corp, Intel Corp, and General Electric are among several Dow components due to post their quarterly scorecards.
The economic calendar also has plenty of indicators for investors to chew on, including June retail sales, the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index, industrial production, weekly jobless claims and housing starts.
Any negative surprise will add fuel to what is shaping up to be the market's first significant pullback since the Standard & Poor's 500 shot up from a 12-year low in March.
"It looks to me like the market might be vulnerable to a correction," said Richard Sparks, senior equities analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati.
"Earnings are probably the key factor" this week, Sparks added. "People are going to be looking to see if there's any mention of a turnaround in earnings."
Last week, US stock investors showed high anxiety about the start of the latest earnings season. The market drifted lower and broke through key technical support despite Alcoa Inc kicking off the reporting season on Wednesday with a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss.
The benchmark S&P 500 had rallied as much as 40 percent from the 12-year closing low of March 9. But it met some headwinds in May and June that stalled the sharp run-up.
The S&P 500 has lost more than seven percent from its recovery peak in early June. That puts it on the cusp of a long-awaited correction, defined as a drop of at least 10 percent from a recent high.
Last week, all three major US stock indexes fell: The Dow Jones industrial average slipped 1.6 percent, the S&P 500 dropped 1.9 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 2.3 percent.
The earnings spotlight will fall mostly on banks this week since their rebound kicked off the spring rally following news of a surprisingly strong start to 2009 and reassuring results from the government's stress tests. In the banking sector, investors will first hear from Goldman Sachs tomorrow, followed by JPMorgan on Thursday, and then Bank of America and Citigroup on Friday.
Another marquee name on Friday's earnings roster is GE, whose businesses include manufacturing, finance and the media/entertainment sector.
Among tech bellwethers, chipmaker Intel is set to report earnings tomorrow, followed on Thursday by web search company Google Inc and technology services giant International Business Machines Corp. Dow component Johnson & Johnson, the huge healthcare and consumer products company whose products include Band-Aids, baby shampoo and Tylenol, will report quarterly results tomorrow.
On Thursday, Harley-Davidson's results are scheduled for release. The motorcycle maker, whose Harleys or "Hogs" are popular with affluent baby boomers, is among companies whose earnings and outlooks serve as a barometer of consumer spending. Harley-Davidson's earnings will come two days after the scheduled release of US government data on June retail sales.
"People want to see good earnings and the next stage of improvement in the economic data," said Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist at BTIG LLC, an institutional brokerage in New York.
"People are intent on waiting on the sidelines until they have a reason to start buying again — or until the data turns bad and (they) start selling again. We are in a holding pattern, from a catalyst or economic data standpoint."
With economic recovery on everyone's mind, the latest monthly retail sales data tomorrow from the Commerce Department will have the potential to colour investors' mood.
June retail sales are forecast to rise 0.4 percent, versus May's increase of 0.5 percent, according to economists polled by Reuters. Excluding autos, June retail sales are forecast to gain 0.5 percent, matching May's increase. The retail sales report is due at 9.30 a.m. Bermuda time.
The spectre of inflation has hung over Wall Street lately due to concerns that an economic recovery may stoke pricing pressures.