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Investors seek clarity on Govt. plans

NEW YORK (Reuters) - With Wall Street veering close to the November bear market lows, the market is likely to be awash with caution this week as investors look for clarity on how the government plans to shore up banks, housing and the economy.

As a dismal earnings season winds down, analysts will also be taking stock of the damage and re-evaluating expectations for the year as companies have cut or withdrawn their outlooks and announced massive lay-offs.

While the bulk of the heavy-hitters have already reported their quarterly results, earnings from Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, are expected this week.

Last week, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's new bank rescue plan failed to restore confidence in the financial system, rattling investors who had high hopes for a plan that would bolster the sector. The markets remain in the dark about exactly how the plan will relieve banks of money-losing assets.

"I was disappointed with the lack of detail," said Scott Wren, senior equity strategist at Wachovia Securities in St. Louis.

"Probably the administration's going to be spending a lot of time over the weekend — they certainly have over the last few days — realising that the market's going to need some details."

The markets will be closed today for the Presidents Day holiday.

The White House said President Barack Obama on Wednesday will outline a plan to stem foreclosures, seen as key to staving off the economic decline that has spread around the world.

Wren said more details could spur a short-term rally in stocks, but until more nuts and bolts are made known the markets will have difficulty sustaining any gains.

On Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average ended down 82.35 points, or 1.04 percent, at 7,850.41, its lowest close since the November 20 bear market closing low.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 8.35 points, or one percent, to 826.84. The Nasdaq Composite Index was off 7.35 points, or 0.48 percent, to 1,534.36.

The broad S&P 500 is up about 10 percent from the bear market lows hit in late November, which marked the index's lowest levels in more than 11 years. The S&P had started the year up roughly 20 percent from the lows.

Indexes slumped for the week, with the bank rescue plan and agreement on the economic stimulus package doing little to reassure investors. The S&P 500 tumbled 4.8 percent, its worst weekly fall since late November. The Dow fell 5.2 percent, while the Nasdaq was down 3.6 percent.

As investors remain on watch for more policy moves out of Washington, analysts said the direction of stocks will be tied to daily news in the short-term and will likely continue to test the November lows.

"My expectations are for continued extreme volatility — I would call it manic depressive mood swings," said Harry Rady, chief executive officer and portfolio manager for Rady Asset Management in San Diego.

"Longer term, as the market realises that whatever plan the government puts forth isn't going to be enough to solve the problem, I think the market could blow through 7,000 on the Dow and go as low as 6,000 — and I think that could occur in the next 30 days."

Wal-Mart, which reports results tomorrow, is expected to post lower earnings per share than a year ago, revealing that this defensive stalwart is not immune to plunging consumer demand.

The earnings season has been characterised by deep losses and write-downs, forcing companies to slash jobs and cut or withdraw guidance for the year.

The dismal results have dampened investors' expectations for the year. Analysts have revised down their estimates for the first and second quarters and now anticipate growth will not be seen until the fourth quarter.

Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates, in Hinsdale, Illinois, said that while fourth quarter of 2009 should be better than the final quarter of last year, it's not a huge leap considering how bad the numbers have been.

"With a lot of companies pulling back on guidance, it's going to be a little bit harder to discern what earnings are going to be like until we get to the end of the earnings season," Nolte said.

"We're going into each of the earnings seasons with a little less clarity."