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Majority still on fence as BoE policymakers split three ways

LONDON (Reuters) – Bank of England policymakers split three ways again in November, with the majority standing ready to move policy in either direction, boosting expectations of no change in the monetary stance for some time to come.

Sterling rose after minutes from the November 3-4 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, published yesterday, showed the same vote as in October when one wanted more stimulus, another wanted a rate hike with the rest opting for unchanged policy.

There had been some speculation one or more members of the MPC would join the call for a resumption of quantitative easing.

Inflation, which the BoE predicts will fall below its two percent target in two years, has held above the target this year and is expected to remain strong in 2011, making it harder for the central bank to sanction any further loosening of policy. But fears over the growth outlook, especially ahead of big government spending cuts next year and given concerns about Europe's economic stability, mean the BoE must be careful not to choke off Britain's recovery by raising rates too early.

"The committee continues to believe that taking any decisive action at the moment would be premature and is content to 'wait and see'," said Nida Ali, economic adviser to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club.

Seven members of the nine-strong MPC voted to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5 percent and maintain the central bank's £200 billion quantitative easing programme.

Andrew Sentance repeated his call for a quarter-point rate hike and Adam Posen argued that the economy needed £50 billion more QE to alleviate the downside risks from the government's austerity drive. But the majority felt not enough had changed since their October meeting and the right action was 'to maintain the current highly expansionary stance of monetary policy'.

"They had differing views on the precise balance of risks to inflation in the medium term, but stood ready to adjust policy in either direction as necessary," the minutes said.

The central bank's latest forecasts, published last week, showed an unusually wide range of risks in both directions for the economy and inflation, making it more likely policy will remain unchanged for some time to come.