Yesterday was Budget day. From a staggeringly cold New York City, here is some instant analysis.

I share Ms Cox's view that "there is still the spark of hope that the financial clouds will ease over the next 18 months". If, however, it takes 18 months for just the spark of hope to arrive, we are in for something of a nightmarish time. I see the thing turning round a little faster than that, and believe that after about another 500 point fall on the Dow, we'll see the bottom. The stock market tends to recover first, and this one has a lot of recovering to do.

No economy ever emerges from a recession in exactly the same shape it entered it. Forecasting is hard, especially where the future is concerned. Generally, I feel pretty comfortable with many of the assumptions Ms Cox has made. I'm sure she'll be relieved to hear that. After all, she's only the Finance Minister and a top lawyer.

Having been somewhat pessimistic on the time scale of recovery, I feel that the Minister has been a little too optimistic in terms of the effect the recession will have on the Bermuda economy. Down 1.0 to 1.5 percent in 2009? I think we'd be lucky if it comes in at asnything less than a 2.5 percent drop.

Delighted to hear that there will be no major increases in taxation. A couple of weeks ago, I said that Ms Cox would raise taxes, and I was wrong. In retrospect, with the borrowing ceiling raised to $1 billion, or about $21,000 for every Bermudian, I sort of wish taxes had gone up.

Government debt is a slippery slope. It is rarely paid back. Our children face the impact of our profligacy, and they usually just borrow more. Excessive borrowing, of course, is what got us into this pickle.

The need for borrowing is, of course, the result of over-spending during the good years. Bermuda was borrowing when other well-to-do countries were setting up investment pools with their surpluses to tide them over for the hard times, should they occur. Well, times are getting tougher than tough, and we're borrowing more. Ms Cox may not call that a stimulus package, but it is indistinguishable from one. More Government borrowing, spent on public projects. How is that not a stimulus package?

Not sure I like the idea of charging interest on long-term debt to the Sinking Fund. If I understand it correctly, that would mean allocating some cost to the Island's capital, and Rule One is you never spend capital. It also distorts the reality of the Budget presentation.

Overall, though, given the circumstances, not bad.

The worse news this week is British Prime Minister Gordon Brown's plans to "shut down the tax havens". What a very silly man he is. Fear not, Bermudians, for three good reasons.

One: Mr. Brown is the very definition of incompetent. The chances of him knowing how to, or being able to, redesign the global financial system are zero.

Two: The focus of whatever ham-fisted ideas Mr. Brown has come up with will to be on illegalities, and Bermuda should welcome that. We don't want the cheats, the liars or the tax evaders. For one cynical thing, we don't make much money off them, and for a more reasonable reason, we don't want to be associated with "tax havens".

Look at Antigua. Everything we're not. About to be clobbered by the sudden outbreak of puritanism that has spread around the edges of the recession, and probably deservedly so.

Three: No matter what rules officialdom puts in place, other, smarter people will always defeat them. Thus, whatever Gordo and his suck-up pals might conclude, it won't make any difference. Drug dealers are not going to say: "Oh well, better turn legitimate". They'll just find other ways of beating the system.

Sir Allen Stanford. Blimey.

Sometimes, it seems it must have been easier to get out of Alcatraz than it is to get out of Bermuda. I left on Tuesday morning for a few days in New York, where I have to interview a top dog about his supply of bones.

Just as I started packing on Monday night, the power went off. I called Belco. "An hour and 22 minutes," the machine told me, until I would be juiced up. Very efficient, so I put off the packing for 82 minutes. When I called back after 83 minutes, I was told that everyone was up the creek. It took seven and a half hours, thanks to the brave linesmen who went out in the filthy weather to get us plugged back in. I had to pack in the dark. The 8.35 a.m. departure took off at noon. All up, it was nine hours door to door.

I understand that the power was off again in the East End after I left. No problem there. No need for power if I'm not on the Island, eh?

New York City is majorly depressed. I understood the saying "cash is king" when I bought a $220 coat on sale for $40, making me the world's oldest hoodie. Better to move the stock and earn some cash than bring in nothing at all, retailers tell me. Everyone is hurting. My usually-$300 hotel is $89 a night.

Where it all goes from here, no one can say. It'll be all right in the end, no doubt, but it's ugly right now. New York City hasn't seemed this depressed since 9/12.

crombie@northrock.bm