Up to 300 jobs have been lost in Bermuda over the past eight months - with as many as 3,400 positions being shed in total this year in the worst-case scenario, according to the latest statistics released by a human resources (HR) and consultancy firm.

A report published by Profiles of Bermuda revealed that the majority of the jobs lost since August 2008 as per un/published sources were in banking and the international sectors and the local economy would be impacted by the cuts.

But, the company said that what degree these effects would be felt was debatable, citing the closure of landmark retailer Trimingham Brothers and the loss of some 200 jobs in July 2005, with the Island quickly recovering from the losses.

Further, it claimed, in 2008, Bermuda's residents spent a total of $1.2 billion on local goods and services and overseas purchases brought back to the Island. But Profiles of Bermuda said that the average employment income in 2008, when adjusted for inflation, was approximately $75,000, meaning that income lost through job losses was approximately $22.5 million.

However, the firm said that while this seems like a significant amount, in fact it represents less than two percent of what residents spent last year. In addition, the 300 jobs shed so far represent less than one percent of the 40,000 jobs in the Island's economy, it added.

"So it is likely that the effects of the job losses on the economy, so far, may have been minimal," read the report.

"Given that Bermuda's tourism season was in the low and shoulder season in the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, gives credence to the low-impact theory.

"However, as Bermuda approaches its high tourism season with bookings sagging behind a sluggish 2008, effects of the global economic downturn are likely to be felt more this summer and fall."

The report went on to give a forecast of job trends, updated in light of the current economic climate, including the predictive or most likely case, and the lower limit or the worst-case scenario, broken down into 16 categories.

In the projections for 2009, jobs in Bermuda will fall marginally from 40,068 in 2008 to 40,037, but there was some variance between industries, with the finance sector showing the greatest decline (five percent), followed by the real estate sector (3.4 percent). However the public sector was expected to see an increase of 3.3 percent.

Meanwhile, the lower limit forecast shows a gloomier picture, with job losses for this year estimated at approximately 3,400 or 8.5 percent less than current levels. Using employment income at $75,000 again, income lost through job losses would reach $254 million or 4.3 percent of the estimated Gross Domestic Product for 2009 of $5.86 billion.

"Such a scenario would have far reaching effects for Bermuda's economy," the report read.

"However, it is also unlikely to come to fruition given that there have been some sprouts of stabilisation in the US of late. In addition, Bermuda's economy has weathered other storms and its built-in, Teflon-like resilience could help us to pull through once again.

"Indeed, the reason that net job losses may be minimal in 2009 is because there are companies that are still hiring. The real outcome for Bermuda may therefore lie closer to the predictive forecast.

"The best advice that can be given is similar to that given during approaching hurricanes - hope for the best but be prepared for any eventuality."