Tougher times to make returns on investments
It is the time of year where we pause in holiday to count our blessings. We celebrate our harvest ahead of the winter season.
In previous generations and in colder climes people had to struggle to make their cache last. Most of us are fortunate enough to have shelter and food for the table as a result of our efforts.
In the spirit of charity we share with those who have had a lesser harvest or were incapable of caring for themselves. This is the basis of the community which sustains us all.
With the whole concept of investing and returns under review, Dr Somnath Basu suggests that we may need to rethink our strict individualism and realise that we will need to share more. Basu is the Director of the CLU Institute of Finance and Professor of the Helsinki School of Economics. He posits in "A New Economy: Structural Changes and its Aftermath" that we are heading into a climate of high uncertainty and volatility in financial markets. This will impact our ability to grow our financial assets sufficiently for the winter seasons in our lives. Marco economics is the weather that promotes and supports our economic growth.
These economic trends come in cycles like the el Ninos and la Ninas eminating from the Pacific Ocean and affecting our global weather patterns.
In investing, we tend to focus on four major cycles as the indicators of what types of investments to buy. These are Expansion, Peak, Contraction, and Trough. The developed global economic community is struggling to emerge from the Trough.
Which road to take is uncertain, except that the path we took to arrive here will not lead us out. The approach to our growing and protecting our financial harvests needs to be adapted to the major change in the macro economic climate.
Where it was sunshine and roses for so long, we are now looking at less favourable conditions for growing assets. The estimates for rates of growth are more subdued. Instead of the 15 to 30 percent returns experienced in our recent lifetime, we are looking at single digits in the five to eight percent range.
Whereas we over fertilised and leveraged our returns near the turn of the millennia, this ruined the soil and dramatic growth will not be repeated until the foundations of our economy are healed.
The emphasis now is on basic areas of investing, such as solid conventional companies that actually make something that we all use. Utility companies, commodity companies, and government bonds have been high on the list. The returns are lower than past expectations, which means the amount we will need to put aside must increase.
The practice of saving is the most critical part in amassing sufficient assets. I cannot stress that enough.
For those with excess bounty, the focus should be on protection. Like when storing grain or corn, it is important also not to be eaten away by fees or grow rot from lack of attention.
The harvest must be managed and rotated. We need to check on its status and viability with regularity. Save and protect.
Most families earn what they need to make ends meet and cover their expenses for day-to-day living. Few of us really know what we will need when we cannot produce a living, such as in disability and retirement. We need to prepare for these uncertainties.
In addition to our day-to-day preparations, there needs to be what used to be called monies for a rainy day. In today's nomenclature it is called a fall-back plan. How will we catch ourselves when we stumble?
In planning, we stress that individuals need to have ready access to six months worth of expenses. For working couples, that may be three months.
For retirement years, it is dramatically more. Just for comparison, it may mean 100 times more or 300 to 600 months of expenses. This is a daunting task, to put aside decades of our annual earnings to be financial prepared for a lifetime. To make it possible, the annual spending needs to be less than the earnings.
Someone needs to keep count. Individually, we need to balance the scales. Think of it as flattening the landscape. We even the hills and valleys of our economic years so that they will stretch further into the future. Boom and bust habits will not sustain us in the long run.
So, why count our blessings? The sun still shines. Our weather is temperate. The economy is viable, so there is an opportunity to produce our goods and wears.
Many are able to earn a living and save for a rainy day or when we can work no more. Together, we have a sufficient amount to also share with those in need.
At some point in our lives, all of us need the kind hands of help from another. The fabric of a community is woven this way. It gives us the protection to weather a long winter together.
Patrice Horner holds an MBA in Finance, a FINRA Series 7 Licence, and is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP-US). Any opinions expressed in this article are not specific recommendations, nor endorsements of any productions. Individuals should consult with their banker, insurance agent, lawyer, accountant, or a financial planner for advice to address their personal situations.