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Watching out for the next big bubble

Wondering what the next bubble might be? How about a merger boom?All the signs are that the global capital markets are gearing up for the next big thing: a wave of mergers and takeover bids. Kraft Foods Inc. is stalking UK confectionery maker Cadbury plc.; mining company Xstrata plc. has proposed combining with Anglo American plc.; and computer manufacturer Dell Inc. just acquired Perot Systems Corp.Expect more deals to be announced over the next six months.

Wondering what the next bubble might be? How about a merger boom?

All the signs are that the global capital markets are gearing up for the next big thing: a wave of mergers and takeover bids. Kraft Foods Inc. is stalking UK confectionery maker Cadbury plc.; mining company Xstrata plc. has proposed combining with Anglo American plc.; and computer manufacturer Dell Inc. just acquired Perot Systems Corp.

Expect more deals to be announced over the next six months.

That will be great for bankers and hedge-fund managers. The investment banks will rake in millions of dollars in advisory fees, while the hedge funds can mint themselves a fortune from buying and selling the shares in targeted companies.

The image of the financial markets will ultimately suffer. The last thing they need is another bubble.

And the sight of financiers making fortunes while ordinary people lose their jobs will stoke a populist backlash that is already brewing.

"M&A now looks ready to make a comeback," Credit Suisse Group AG said in a note to investors last month.

We may well see a merger boom. But if it happens, only one conclusion can be drawn: We have learned nothing from the crisis of the past year.

Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.