Buoyant demand from China is a plus for Alcoa
Q. I'm concerned about my shares of Alcoa Inc. Where do you see them going this year?—J.L., via the Internet
A. The world's largest aluminum producer has positioned itself to benefit from a global economic recovery but in the meantime must cope with low and uncertain prices for that metal.
It has used the recessionary period of falling demand to improve its efficiency by selling off some low-growth assets and expanding its production in lower-cost locales such as Brazil, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Strong demand from China and improvement in aerospace and industrial markets are pluses for the firm. It has been increasing its profit margins.
Yet continued uncertainty over where aluminum prices are headed and large world inventories of the metal remain worries. Debt problems in the European Union are another economic concern affecting a world producer such as Alcoa. Costs of energy and raw materials can also be volatile and there are labor issues with which it must cope.
Alcoa (AA) shares are down 26 percent this year following last year's 46 percent rise. The company's first-quarter loss of $201 million was less than half its loss of the year-earlier quarter, yet sales results disappointed Wall Street analysts.
Alcoa recently named Klaus Kleinfeld as its chairman and CEO, replacing the retiring CEO Alain Belda. Kleinfeld, who joined Alcoa as president and CEO in 2007, was previously CEO of Germany's Siemens AG.
The consensus analyst recommendation on Alcoa shares is "hold," according to Thomson Reuters, consisting of two "strong buys," five "buys," nine "holds," one "underperform" and one "sell".
Alcoa's "downstream" businesses produce beverage cans, aerospace components, gas turbines, auto and building products and telecommunications parts. Its "upstream" segments include mining, refining and smelting. It has operations on every continent and mining activities in the US, Australia, Brazil, Guinea, Jamaica, Trinidad and Suriname, employing 59,000 people in 31 countries.
Alcoa's recently-published sustainability report set a goal of reducing by 2020 its total carbon dioxide use by 20 percent and energy consumption of by its primary operations by 10 percent. It said it will employ land management, biodiversity and purchasing standards to help it achieve its goals.
Earnings are expected to rise 184 percent this year and 57 percent next year. The five-year annualized growth rate for the company is projected to be 15 percent versus 16 percent forecast for the aluminum industry.
Q. Should I keep Fidelity Balanced Fund in my retirement account?—B.V., via the Internet
A. It has stood the test of time and lived up to its name. Conservative investors are therefore comfortable with its careful mix of Treasuries and blue-chip stocks.
The $21 billion Fidelity Balanced Fund (FBALX) is up 23 percent over the past 12 months to rank in the upper one-fifth of funds that hold stocks and bonds. Its three-year annualized decline of 3 percent places it at the mid-point of its peers.
"For the majority of investors aged 55 and older, a balanced fund makes good sense," said Jim Lowell, editor of Fidelityinvestor.com in Needham, Mass. "This is a classic balanced fund that can serve as a core holding, or at least a meaningful piece of an investor's overall investment pie."
Lowell's only critique is that this fund doesn't take advantage of the shift to a global economy. He prefers Fidelity Global Balanced Fund (FGBLX), which he feels is better-positioned for the next 30 years to provide a balanced approach that makes fundamental sense in a global market.
Fidelity's experienced multi-manager group headed by former Magellan Fund manager Robert Stansky has been in charge of Fidelity Balanced Fund's stock selections since 2008. Its approach, with choices divided among eight sector specialists, has been more subdued than that of prior manager Larry Rakers.
This team prefers to make smaller bets on individual stocks than Rakers did and doesn't invest in all capitalization sizes as he did. It emphasizes large-cap stocks with a weighting aligned with the Standard & Poor's 500 index, a strategy which can limit returns. George Fisher has been the fund's fixed-income manager since 2004.
According to the Statement of Additional Information pertaining to Fidelity Balanced Fund, none of its managers have any investment in it themselves.
Fidelity Balanced Fund has 58 percent of its portfolio in stocks, 31 percent in fixed-rate investments and the remainder in cash. Financial services is the largest stock concentration in the fund at 16 percent, followed by hardware, healthcare and industrial materials. The top holdings are Microsoft Corp., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Treasury notes, Fannie Mae bonds, Procter & Gamble, Wells Fargo Co. and Pfizer Inc.
This "no-load" (no sales charge) fund requires a $2,500 minimum initial investment and has a low 0.68 percent annual expense ratio.