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Eli Lilly's new drug could be a blockbuster

Q. We have held shares of Eli Lilly & Co. for years. Are they still a good investment for the future? — P.J., via the Internet

A. The innovative pharmaceutical company is known for its strong product pipeline, but it faces industry-wide pressures of recession, cheaper generics and the push by government and insurers to hold down costs.

Worldwide sales of pharmaceuticals are projected to increase at a 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent rate this year, the lowest growth rate in 25 years, according to data from IMS Health Inc.

That report also indicated the new anti-clotting drug prasugrel from Eli Lilly and Daiichi Sankyo Co. could turn out to be a blockbuster. Though recommended for approval by a Food and Drug Administration committee, the drug's potential risks have been noted by consumer health advocates who have asked the FDA to halt its review.

Lately, the sales of Lilly's biggest drug, the antipsychotic Zyprexa, have been flat, while antidepressant Cymbalta and oncology treatment Alimta have posted solid sales gains.

Lilly (LLY) shares are down 11 percent this year following last year's 25 percent decline. First-quarter net income rose 23 percent as a stronger US dollar boosted revenue by revaluing international drug inventories. The firm was also able to raise prices on a number of drugs.

Since Lilly's Zyprexa, Cymbalta and osteoporosis drug Evista all lose patent protection between 2011 and 2013, the company needs to replace profits taken away by generics.

Activist investor Carl Icahn, who agitated for the $6.5 billion sale of ImClone Systems Inc. to Lilly last year, lately has been pushing hard for the sale of Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. to Lilly. Amylin and Lilly are partners in the diabetes treatment Byetta, and Icahn's group recently won two seats on Amylin's board.

The consensus analyst recommendation on Lilly shares is a "hold," according to Thomson Reuters, consisting of one "strong buy," one "buy," 13 "holds" and three "underperforms."

Lilly chief executive John Lechleiter said he will consider deals for businesses costing between $5 billion and $15 billion but sees no advantage in a combination with another giant drug company.

He said he wants to expand the firm's animal-health business and is also considering biotechnology but is not interested in non-drug areas such as medical devices or diagnostic companies.

Earnings are expected to increase five percent this year compared with the one percent decline projected for the major drug manufacturers industry. Next year's forecast is for seven percent versus 11 percent industry-wide. The five-year annualised return is expected to be five percent compared to six percent forecast for its peers.

Q. I am disappointed by the results of Janus Overseas Fund and would like your opinion. — B.K., via the Internet

A. It is big, but not nearly as big as it used to be.

Following a flood of investor redemptions last year, the foreign large-cap-growth fund that once had $11 billion in assets was reopened to new investors in December after being closed for a year.

Janus Overseas Fund (JAOSX) now has assets of $4.7 billion. It posted a decline of 29 percent over the past 12 months and had a three-year annualised gain of four percent. Both returns rank in the top two percent of all foreign large-growth funds.

"One thing investors might not realise is that portfolio manager Brent Lynn looks at 'overseas' in terms of where a company generates its income rather than where it is located," said Andrew Gogerty, analyst with Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. "So you will see some US companies in its portfolio."