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Investing in food stocks is logical

Q. I am happy with my shares of General Mills Inc. but wonder how long they can continue to do so well. — LJ, via the Internet

A. With the stock market trying to be logical these days, nothing is more logical than food.

The giant US packaged-food firm has been able to pass along to consumers the increased costs of its raw materials. In addition, people have to eat no matter what the state of the economy.

This makes food companies considerably more attractive than many less dependable investment alternatives.

In its fiscal first quarter that ended in August, there was a 25 percent increase in sales of General Mills' bakery products, led by Betty Crocker dessert mixes; a 19 percent gain in Yoplait; a 14 percent rise in snacks such as Nature Valley bars; and a 10 percent increase in cereals such as Cheerios.

It helps that the company remains focused on keeping costs down and introducing new products, such as Progresso light soups and Fiber One bars. There is additional benefit from families opting not to dine out because of the economy.

Shares of General Mills (GIS) are up 19 percent this year following last year's one percent decline and a 17 percent increase in 2006. While net income slipped four percent in its first quarter because of rising commodity costs, net sales rose 14 percent.

International sales is General Mills' fastest-growing segment, doubling in volume over the past five years, with more room to grow. Consensus opinion on General Mills shares is "buy", according to Thomson Financial, consisting of five "strong buys," six "buys" and five "holds".

There remains the question of when or if consumers will balk at higher food prices and forsake brand-name products. Sales of lower-priced private-label grocery brands have significantly improved.

In addition, growth of Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s grocery operations has led to consolidation of grocery retailers and reduced the pricing leverage of food companies.

Obesity among children has become a growing concern of government and activist groups. This has resulted in food manufacturers agreeing to curtail advertising of some high-sugar-content products, but further action is possible.

Earnings are expected to increase 11 percent in its fiscal year ending in May and 9 percent the following fiscal year. The five-year annualised growth projection is nine percent, compared with 10 percent for the processed- and packaged-goods industry.

Q. What's going to happen to my battered shares of Third Avenue Real Estate Value Fund? — J.M., via the Internet

A. It is an unusual real estate fund, yet any kind of real estate fund can mean trouble these days.

The fund doesn't invest solely in real estate investment trusts, as many of its peers do. It prefers real estate operating companies that focus on development of properties, as well as foreign holdings and land-owning companies.

The $1.8 billion Third Avenue Real Estate Value Fund (TAREX) is down 50 percent over the past 12 months, yet ranks in the top one-fifth of global real estate funds. Its three-year annualised decline of 12 percent is below the midpoint of its peers.

"Even though we still like this fund, this is a very bad time for its particular strategy," said John Coumarianos, analyst with Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. "Yet it is perfectly fine to have exposure to companies that are talented at doing development, and the fund has done quite well over a long period of time."