WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of newly laid-off Americans requesting unemployment insurance dropped slightly last week after spiking due to auto lay-offs, while continuing jobless claims moved closer to seven million.

Jobs are likely to remain scarce through next year and maybe beyond that even though the overall economy seems to be picking up. Fresh evidence of improvement came yesterday from a private research group. It said its index of leading indicators rose in April for the first time in seven months.

The Labor Department said yesterday that initial claims for jobless benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 631,000, down from a revised figure of 643,000 the previous week. That nearly matched analysts' expectations of 630,000 new claims.

Many economists said that while lay-offs probably are still declining, they may not be doing so as fast as had been hoped. New jobless claims, which had dropped to a 14-week low of 605,000 earlier this month, are seen as a measure of the pace of lay-offs.

Factory shutdowns by Chrysler LLC and General Motors Corp. likely will continue to inflate the claims figures until this summer, economists said. The shutdowns also could affect auto suppliers, which employ roughly 3 million workers.

"We expect that the auto shutdowns will be lifting claims for the next couple of months," said Dean Maki, an economist at Barclays Capital.

Claims jumped two weeks ago as Chrysler shut its factories after filing for bankruptcy protection April 30, putting up to 27,000 hourly employees out of work. In addition, GM is temporarily closing 13 factories on a rolling basis over the next two months, a move economists estimate could affect 25,000 workers.

Joseph Lavorgna, chief US economist at Deutsche Bank, thinks the closings could temporarily push claims to as high as 700,000, though few other economists are as bearish.

The number of US workers continuing to claim unemployment insurance rose to nearly 6.7 million from about 6.6 million, the department said. That's the highest total on records dating to 1967 and the 16th straight record. The continuing claims data lags initial claims by one week.

While the pace of lay-offs may slow, hiring remains weak and the unemployment rate will keep rising. Based on yesterday's data, Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, predicts it could rise to 9.2 percent in May, from 8.9 percent in April.

The four-week average of new claims, which smooths fluctuations, dipped to 628,500, from 632,000, the department said.