VIENNA, Austria (AP) — World energy needs will spike by more than 50 percent by 2030 but adequate oil reserves, conservation and new methods of recovery mean supply will keep pace with demand, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) said yesterday.

Still, Opec's secretary general acknowledged that dangers to steady supply exist. Addressing one, the threat of a US or Israeli attack on Iran, because of its nuclear defiance, he warned that his organisation was unprepared and unable to make up for resulting oil shortfalls.

"It is impossible to replace the production of Iran," Opec's No. 2 producer, Abdalla Salem El-Badri told reporters at the presentation of the organisation's long term oil market outlook.

The United States and Israel have not ruled out a military strike on Iran as a last option if it does not give up uranium enrichment and heed other UN Security Council demands meant to dispel the fear Tehran wants to make nuclear arms.

Tehran produced just over four million barrels of crude a day last year — more than 10 percent of Opec's total production. In its report, "World Look Outlook for 2008", Opec took issue with critics blaming present sky-rocketing prices on the refusal of the organisation to increase output, asserting that the weak US dollar and market speculators were at least partly to blame.

And it suggested that decades of low prices led to under-investment, leaving the industry ill-prepared to sate the increased hunger for crude generated by strong economic growth.

Past "low prices were bad for the oil industry, and in the longer term they were also bad for consumer", said the summary of the 214-page report. At the same time, despite delivery bottlenecks, "there is enough oil to meet the world's needs for the foreseeable future," it added. El-Badri made the same point.

"Today, what is apparent is that oil supply and demand fundamentals are healthy," he wrote.