Things may be bad, but they are hardly catastrophic
The common investment refrain these days is: "What am I going to do if my investments go to zero?" This statement is usually accompanied by terribly worried facial expressions. Sometimes it helps to apply some logic: "Why do you think all of your investment values are going to zero?"
Can it happen?
If you have invested in highly leveraged funds, and by that I mean leveraged by ten to one, 20 to one, 32 to one, that are now under water, you may end up looking at zero. (Leverage means for every dollar of real assets, the investment manager borrows ten, 20, 0r 32 times that amount to invest. This also means that for every percentage loss, the result is exaggerated 32 times.)
Yes, you may be an unlucky loser if you put all of your money into Stanford Financial Certificates of Deposit paying 8.5 percemnt per year when the legitimate US dollar 3-year Treasury bond can barely yield 1.35 percent. Why anyone would take that chance given the reputation of Antigua is hard to understand. Researching that jurisdiction is as easy as typing the name into Google. The results are not pretty. According to a Mondaq Banking and Financial June 14, 2006 article by Ian Moncrief-Scott, "the country has one of the highest per capita debts and a reputation for serious malgovernance, links with organised crime, arms trafficking and international money laundering".
Fortunately, many investors have some of their investments sitting in what can be categorized as plain vanilla asset allocations, purchased in mutual funds or individual securities with well recognised long-standing reputational investment company names. They are getting the benefits of good investment managers, even though market values are down.
An investment history question ... did everything go to zero every time we've had a crash? The answer is no ¿ even in the United States Great Depression, many companies did survive, including banks. I can clearly remember advising clients in 1997 regarding tax implications of sales of family owned bank stock held right through the 1929 crash and the Depression that followed.
Getting close to home: Why then do we succumb at every market downturn to fatalism? What we say, what we do, and how we think, are in direct contradiction to each other.
Men, if you have the chance to purchase that 52-inch plasma TV at a really competitive price, would you hesitate? No. Do you think twice about buying shaving cream, Ipods, cell phones, athletic shoes, medications, cigarettes, your favourite beer? No? What about taking that trip to the SuperBowl, Las Vegas, the World Cup? No?
Ladies, oh we spend so much more than men: makeup, nails, shoes, clothes, electronics, vacations, spas, birthday gifts, jewellery, shopping trips, handbags, how to books, and so on. We don't think about where the item came from, we just buy if we truly want it
What would you say if I told you that all of those consumer driven items are products of companies listed on the S&P 500, or the Global Stock indexes. Think about it. Personal grooming, electronics, entertainment, sports, consumption? Now let's put names to products. Proctor & Gamble, Apple, Nike, Pfizer, Nokia, Research in Motion RIM, Philip Morris?
Still think your investments are going to zero? Every single day, in every way, in just about everything that you do living on this earth, you are contributing to the productivity and profits of global companies. How can you even begin to imagine that every single one of them will go out of business?
If you still don't believe me, let's take a quick look at few global conglomerates picked pretty much at random from the S&P 500 index line-up. The S&P 500 is an index of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry grouping, among other factors.
The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of US equities and is meant to reflect the risk/return characteristics of the large cap universe. It is a large focus of financial news media routines everyday. (Investopedia)
Companies included in the index are selected by the S&P Index Committee, a team of analysts and economists at Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 is a market value weighted index - each stock's weight in the index is proportionate to its market value.
Boeing Aircraft (BA) founded in 1934, the stock was worth six cents a share in 1974, $6.91 per share in 1984 and significantly more than that today. Are we going to stop flying? How many Boeings have you been on in your life? Are they going to cease production?
Apple (AAPL) incorporated in 1977, they started paying dividends in 1980s and have grown into one of the dominant forces in our lives today. How long before we will all be watching Apple TV? Will we stop buying IPods? Will they go out of business?
Genzyme (GENZ) a major health care contributor, started in 1981, their stock is valued at $70 this week.
McDonalds (MCD) It is a way of life ¿ need I say more? Initial public offering in 1965, the share value in 1972 was $1.09, this week it was trading at $56. Will we bulldoze down all those golden arches with neglect? I don't think so.
Is it a question of perception when it should be a question of logic? Perhaps, we need to step back, look around at our comfortable life and use common sense. And remember that every day in every way, we contribute to global company profits. Do not give up on your investments, but do consider having a financial review to be sure that you own the right investments for your personal financial profile.
One last bit of amusement. The performance of the Dow Jones Index for 2008 was abysmal, and all share values down except for the slightly unclassy "Buns and Beer" ¿ McDonalds and Anheuser Busch both had very profitable years. Maybe that's really all we need to have a good day.
Martha Harris Myron CPA -NH1929, CFP® -67184 (US licenses) TEP - Society of Trust and Estate Practitioners, specializes in fee only comprehensive objective financial solutions and investment advisory services for individual private clients and their families, business owners, endowments and trusts. Confidential email can be directed to marthamyron@northrock.bm