Toyota is suffering with the rest
Q. With all the other carmakers having such serious problems, shouldn't Toyota Motor Corp. stock be doing really well? — V.L., via the Internet
A. It is no pleasure ride for any automaker these days, even the company that surpassed General Motors Corp. to become the world's biggest in sales last year.
Decreased demand for its cars and trucks in the US, Europe and Japan is expected to produce the first operating loss in 70 years for the Japanese giant in its fiscal year ending March 31.
The company has added to previous production cuts in North America as it seeks to reduce inventory by about half in the second quarter of the year. After deciding to stop production at all 12 of its plants in Japan for 11 days in February and March, it began negotiating salary reductions with workers there.
Fitch Ratings downgraded the firm's senior unsecured debt to AA from AAA with a negative outlook. Fitch said multiple negative market events are "so substantial and fundamental" that the carmaker should review all aspects of its business.
Shares of Toyota (TM) declined 38 percent last year and 21 percent in 2007.
Akio Toyoda, the grandson of the company's founder who recently was named its new president, has promised bold moves to revitalise the company by putting customers first.
Toyota hopes its redesigned Prius hybrid model that gets 50 miles per gallon, 4 miles per gallon better than the previous model, will boost sales, and the company has set a target of 400,000 in global sales for 2010. But the new model, available in the US and Japan in May, is being introduced in a period of lower fuel prices. It also faces competition as Honda Insight and Ford Fusion hybrids come to market.
According to Thomson Financial, analyst recommendations consist of two "buys," 11 "holds," nine "sells" and two "strong sells".
With a reputation for popular and quality vehicles, Toyota is the best-positioned manufacturer in its industry. It continues to gain market share worldwide, and its lower pension and retiree health-care costs give the firm a cost advantage over US carmakers.
Earnings for its fiscal year ending in March are expected to decline 89 percent and the following fiscal year to decline 54 percent, according to Thomson. The five-year annualised earnings projection is a decline of 12 percent.
Q. I am disappointed with the results of the Fidelity Worldwide Fund. Is it worth keeping? — F.R., via the Internet
A. Although this respected fund investing in both US and foreign stocks looks good for the long run, growth investing around the world ran into a buzz saw in mid-2008.
William Kennedy has run the fund's foreign portfolio since 2006, while Stephen DuFour has managed the US portion since 2007. They emphasise large-cap stocks but have some mid-cap holdings as well.
The question for investors is whether they really need this fund's two-pronged approach if they own individual domestic and foreign funds.
The $875 million Fidelity Worldwide Fund (FWWFX) is down 38 percent over the past 12 months and had a three-year annualised decline of 10 percent. Both results rank in the upper one-third of world stock funds.
"This fund will lose money when the market sells off, for we've learned that the US and global marketplaces are linked," said Jim Lowell, editor of the independent Fidelity Investor newsletter. "However, I have it buy-rated because it is certainly worth a look for long-term growth investors."
Kennedy, a capable stock picker who seeks growth at a reasonable price, also runs Fidelity International Discovery. DuFour, a value-oriented investor, also manages Fidelity Focused Stock Fund.
"Lead manager Kennedy has consistently been among the top international fund managers in our ranking system," Lowell said. "So this is a very well-diversified fund, with a solid stock picker at the helm."
The fund has had considerable portfolio turnover in recent years. The US component currently represents 43 percent of the portfolio. Among other significant country concentrations are the United Kingdom at 11 percent, Japan at seven percent and Switzerland at six percent.
The "no-load" (no sales charge) fund requires a $2,500 minimum initial investment and has an annual expense ratio of 1.19 percent.
Q. My 401(k) plan at work includes target-date funds. I'm about ready to try anything. Are these a good idea? — N.R., via the Internet
A. Target-date funds have become increasingly popular with 401(k) investors because they basically take care of themselves and are a no-fuss choice.
The target-date fund invests in a collection of underlying funds. After you put in your money, the fund will adjust the asset mix among those underlying funds in the portfolio, becoming more conservative as your expected retirement date approaches.
"Target-date funds are good for people who don't want to make their own allocation decisions," said Mark Salzinger, publisher and editor of The No-Load Fund Investor. "The allocation becomes more conservative and less equity-oriented as the target date is approached."
For example, a fund that is targeting 2040 might have 80 percent in stock funds, while another targeting 2010 might have 50 percent in stock funds, Salzinger said. Overall mix and investment strategy, however, varies among financial firms handling the target-date funds.
Andrew Leckey answers questions only through the column. Address inquiries to Andrew Leckey, 555 N. Central Ave., Suite 302, Phoenix, AZ 85004-1248, or by e-mail at andrewinv@aol.com.