The year 2008 was easily the most tumultuous of my 27 years in international finance. A number of never-in-our-lifetime events occurred, all of which individually had the power to impact the world, but together have left us with a profound sense of uncertainty as we turn the year.

One thing for sure: The advanced economies have entered the largest synchronised recession that many of us have ever seen. The measures to get out of this - to ensure medium to long-term sustainability of growth, low inflation, a healthier environment, and a world in which the most-needy can advance - are going to require our policy makers to be bold and ambitious.

For 2009, I look forward to the inauguration of President-elect Barack Obama, as he appears to be up to the challenge. The difficult times we have entered require governments to take strong actions, using their own direct involvement in the economy in a manner the world hasn't witnessed since perhaps the aftermath of World War II.

Luckily, along with the strength and speed of reaction from the all-important Chinese, the new US leadership might just be what we need. I look forward to bold fiscal expansion in both nations, helping to lead the world to recovery from the terrible turmoil of this year.

As the year closes, the depth of the crisis facing the world might allow policy makers to marry the cyclical challenge with a shared commitment to improving the environment and meeting the energy and climate challenge. I suspect we will get considerable initiatives in these areas.

Together, with the continued aggressive actions of the major central banks, fiscal expansion will deliver a modest global recovery in late 2009, and while the year will start slowly, it will get better. Financial markets, as always, will be better at anticipating the future than many of us in the job of analysing it, which means there is a good chance that a decent recovery of equity markets will occur at some stage.

Given the favourable valuation of corporate bonds, it is likely that any recovery might be led here.

As for the dollar, 2009 promises fresh challenges as the Federal Reserve continues with its expansive policies, something that is probably going to be more of an issue for those outside the US than within.