NEW YORK (Bloomberg) — Bermuda-based Tyco International Ltd., the world's largest maker of security systems, said fiscal 2009 and first-quarter profit will trail analysts' estimates, hurt by a higher US dollar and slowing global economies.

Profit from continuing operations for the year ending in September 2009, excluding some items, will be $2.20 to $2.50 a share, chief executive officer Edward Breen said on a conference call on Tuesday to discuss the company's fourth-quarter results. That's below the $3.04 forecast by 12 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Tyco, which gets more than half its revenue from outside the US, may see sales shaved by as much as $2 billion and profit by 38 cents a share as a rising dollar hurts results. At the electrical and metal products unit, rising steel prices and slowing markets may cut another 35 cents a share, Breen said. Tyco sees Asia and Latin America markets still climbing, though more slowly. Its ADT unit is being hurt by slowing sales to retailers.

"Pretty much all of Tyco's businesses face tough comparisons and macro challenges ahead," Morgan Stanley analyst Scott Davis wrote in a note to investors, noting this is the case for most industrial companies. Davis' "overweight" rating is being "seriously challenged here," he wrote. First-quarter results will be hurt the most, exacerbated by a comparison to the year-ago quarter in the valve unit when the company had a large order in Australia, Breen said. Markets across Tyco in the US and Europe are slowing, he said.

Profit from continuing operations excluding some items will be 46 cents to 49 cents a share in the current quarter, the company said. That's less than the 74 cents predicted by five analysts polled by Bloomberg.

"We think it's prudent to be conservative in this environment," Breen, 52, told investors on the call. Forecasts include costs for restructuring, he said. "We are planning on a year where our organic revenue is flat to down four percent."

Tyco, run from West Windsor, New Jersey, dropped $1.73, or eight percent, to $20.01 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading yesterday. On Tuesday it fell 14 percent, the biggest percentage decline since July 25, 2002.

The company expects to maintain a debt level of $4.2 billion to $4.5 billion, chief financial officer Chris Coughlin said on the call. About $500 million in maturities come due in fiscal 2009 and are part of the forecast, Tyco said. The company will have enough cash to keep investing in growth programmes, though it may slow share repurchases, Breen said.