Director of the Bermuda Weather Service, Roger Williams of BAS-Serco Ltd, located on the former Baselands in St. David's, believes this is going to be a fully active season for hurricanes around the Atlantic and the Caribbean.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasters say six to nine hurricanes could threaten in 2003. Professor William Gray said on May 30 that eight hurricanes could form this hurricane season.

As a meteorologist, Mr. Williams is forever studying weather patterns, particularly those that might involve or impact Bermuda.

"Hurricanes and tropical storms have had an impact on Bermuda from its earliest times," he said.

"A study of local records from 1609 to the present day of storm damage through the years indicates a damaging storm once every six to seven years."

June through November is Bermuda's tropical cyclone season with an average of one storm passing within 180 nautical miles of the Island each year.

Bermuda (32.2 degrees North 64.4 degrees West) is located near the northern limit of the normal Atlantic tropical cyclone recurvature band of 25 -35 degrees north latitude.

Mr. Williams said Bermuda is off the regular storm track for most of the season. Tropical storms and hurricanes tend to be tightly packed weather systems with damaging winds affecting a limited area. Covering an area of approximately 20 square miles Bermuda is a small target and as a result rarely suffers a direct hit.

"The peak months for tropical cyclone activity affecting Bermuda are September and October followed by August," Mr. Williams said.

He further explained that in July, August and September storms develop from tropical waves, in the easterly trade wind belt. These storms usually develop near the Cape Verde Islands, and often intensify to category three by the time they approach the longitude of Bermuda. However, during the main part of the 2003 season, they are expected to steer south of Bermuda towards the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and the eastern US coast.

"The main threat for Bermuda lies from mid September through November when the Bermuda-Azores high pressure belt retreats eastwards and the south westerly upper wind flow gradually becomes re-established over the western Atlantic.

"There is a possibility of storms recurving and crossing closer to the Island and some of these might be fairly active," Mr. Williams explained.

By 2004 a much more powerful Doppler weather radar for Bermuda will aid local forecasters in storm prediction.

The present radar system, now seven years old, is based on a low powered 3cm radar, only capable of detecting adjacent showers and the front edge of precipitation bands. Beyond this the radar cannot penetrate due to attenuation of the signal.

Mr. Williams said that the new radar will offer better safety aspects to us with timely and accurate severe weather warnings for:

Tropical and winter storms,

Severe squall lines,

Heavy rainfall events.

There are many technical advantages of the new system such as the various `state of the art' displays and analysis tools available to the meteorologist and the vastly improved penetration of rain bands and tracking of weather systems - in particular hurricanes.

It has the ability to accurately identify and follow the "eye of the storm" at distances of up to 300 miles. It also shows detailed information on the three-dimensional structure of thunderstorms and gives more accurate prediction of growth and track of thunderstorm cells.

At the end of March through April 7, Mr. Williams attended the 25th WMO Regional Association IV Hurricane Committee (RAIVHC) held at Mexico City, Mexico. One of the main points of interest was that five day tropical cyclone forecasts by the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) will become operational in 2003. This action is in response to requests from the US Navy and other groups.

"The 2002 season 24/48/72 hour track errors continued the gradual improvement of the last few years," Mr. Williams said. However, people should be aware of the potential errors, up to 200 nm at 72 hours, and concentrate on the "plume of possibility" rather than the single line best track estimate.

Mr. Williams loves watching weather because every day is different. He finds that the operational side of his weather tasks to be the most fascinating.

"Hurricanes are difficult to predict and we must be prepared at any stage. In over 50 years we have not had a category three storm."

People who know him on the job would probably describe Mr. Williams as enthusiastic, creative, intuitive, relaxed, organised and helpful.

Every year Mr. Williams shares his extensive hurricane expertise with The Royal Gazette. I certainly attest to seeing these qualities and Bermuda is fortunate to have a man with Mr. Williams' skills and weather experience.