JUST a week after I wrote my imaginary worst- case scenario about the ramifications of an economic collapse in Bermuda's economy and it seems that reality may be very quickly catching up with my conjectures.

In recent days we have heard realtors warning of the imminent softening of the rental market as increasing numbers of guest workers in the off-shore financial services sector are being let go and, as a consequence, many high-end rental units have been left sitting vacant.

And at the same time there are a growing number of warnings about the prospect of some of those newly constructed office buildings now crowding the skyline of the City of Hamilton sitting empty because exisiting international companies are downsizing and cutting costs and very few new ones are setting up shop in Bermuda .

The Bermuda Employers Council has put out a warning that the employers should not panic in the face of this gathering economic storm - one that is beginning looks rather like the economic storm of the century. The Employers Council is urging its members to consider other options rather than making workers redundant. Among the alternatives it has suggested are options like offering their workers reduced work weeks rather than following the trend we see taking place in other countries such as the United States which has seen the wholesale cutting of staff in a wide variety of businesses.

All of this means that long before I offered my prognostications on how the global economic crisis might effect Bermuda, its impact was already making itself felt on the foundations of Bermuda's economy.;

But still, despite the fact Bermuda is clearly not going to emerge from this economic downturn unscathed, the growing crisis has not generated the level of discussion s among Bermudians that it should. Except of course, among those Bermudians who have already been informed that they will be losing their jobs.

While the contraction of the labour force is still occuring on a relatively small scale so far, still it is unprecedented for a country long used to enjoying overemployment, a country in which about a third of the workforce consists of foreign workers.

Just a few months ago the talk was about the need to import even more workers from overseas to man a supposedly expanding Bermuda economy. We needed to build more condos to house them, put up more office buildings for their companies. Then came Black October and the beginning of the global economic crisis. Even a long-established multi-national firm like the American International Group, a firm that has operated in Bermuda since the end of World War Two and which was viewed as being a permanent ficxture on the local and global financial landscapes, came perilously close to collapsing. Only the last-minute intervention of the US government (which effectively nationalised the insurance company) prevented its collapse.

Now all talk of a burgeoning Bermuda economy has gone by the board. The economic storm that is careening around the globe is making landfall in Bermuda. The island that has long called itself "another world" is discovering for the first time in generations that it is not in fact entirely immune from the socio-economic problems that plague the rest of the world.

The Employers Council is right to strike a note of caution about the possibility of any panic lay-offs on the part of businesses.

Bermuda, by and large, is a service economy with most businesses depending on the consumer market to keep them afloat in the absence of large numbers of free- spending tourists.

Now, if you take to laying off Bermudians, you are likely to set off a chain reaction which will soon result in reduced spending. Unemployed people, after all, don't spend what little money they have.

So those companies which tried to stay afloat by reducing their staff levels would invariably find themselves hoist by their own petard. They would be forced to shut their doors because in addition to cutting staff, they would have cut the number of potential customers.

This whole situationm of course, will come as a great shock - a type of culture shock, even - to Bermudians who are used to enjoying full employment and jobs for life almost as a right.

The unions have taken to holding meetings about this worsening situation as many of its members are beginning to feel the impact of the economic downturn.

To avoid the conflict which is sure to come with increasing numbers of Bermudians losing their jobs, perhaps it is now time for Government, labour and employers to hold a tripartite meeting to hammer out contingency plans on how Bermuda is going to best weather this crisis.

Such a post-partisan approach in itself would be unprecedented - at least since the Second World War - given our warring tendencies and fragmented loyalties but at this point there may be no other choice.

We should not delude ourselves into thinking that the growing unrest we see in Britain, France and in a number of other countries over the ongoing loss of jobs could not happen here.

The demonstrations and riots we are witnessing are expressions of outrage by those at the bottom of the economic totem pole who are now paying the price because of the foolishness, risk-taking and greed of the top men on the totem pole.

The only reason that we have not so far seen similar outbreaks of unrest in the United States is probably due to the Obama Factor. Since the election of President Barack Obama in November we have heard a lot of tough talk from him about corpoprate irresponsibility and he is attempting to pass emergency legislation designed to help the average American ride out this economic crisis. So there is still a great deal of faith in his his brand of the Politics Of Hope.

For now. Americans want to believe that with Obama at the helm, their country will be able to negotiate the worst effects of the economic crisis without sustaining too much damage. But if at this time next year things have grownsignificatly worse, than don't be syrprised if you start witnessing scenes of unrest on American streets as well.

Bermuda is used to riding out recessions without too much bother. And certainly we have never even considered the prospect of widespread unemployment since the 1939-45 war (and even then the military and the construction of foreign military bases here mopped up a lot of the people who lost jobs when the tourism trade came to a complete halt). The foreign workforce is likely to be the first to feel the consequences of a contracting Bermudian economy as Bermudians, like workers in other countries, will expect their Government to put their interests first. This is the growing cry in both Britain and France. Admittedly, it does not take much for the French to hit the streets. But to see what's happening in Britain now that Prime Minister Brown has voiced his opposition to any type of even temporary protectionist policies to protect British workers and their jobs, you will get a clear picture of how serious this economic downturn is becoming.

Bermuda must now face the prospect that we could be facing a situation that will test us like nothing has before.

The question now is are we up to it?