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McCain's risky political gamble on Palin

The political stage has now been set for what promises to be the most intense US Presidential campaign since 2000 when George Bush was first elected to the White House amid accusations and counter-accusations about which candidate actually won the popular vote - and the all-important Electoral College votes - in the state of Florida.

With both the Democrats' Barack Obama and the Republicans' John McCain officially receiving their parties' nominations and with their Vice-Presidential choices now made, the real campaign - the 70 day sprint to the November 4 finish line - could be said to be getting underway today.

There is no doubt the candidacy of Barack Obama has put a powerful new political dynamic into play in America's Presidential election process. This isn't only because he is the first African-American to win the nomination of a major political party. The fact is Senator Obama is one of those figures who only comes along once in a generation, a truly charismatic leader, a brilliant speaker and a great source of inspiration to millions of people. America hasn't seen the likes of Senator Obama since the tragically foreshortened Presidency of John F. Kennedy in the 1960s.

It is this dynamism that no doubt has led Senator McCain to attempt to siphon off some of this ardour for the Republican Presidential ticket by selecting a woman as his running mate. The only real surprise, given the number of prominent and intelligent female Republicans (people like Dr. Condaleeza Rice and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison come immediately to mind) is why did he choose a virtual unknown in the person of Alaska's Governor Sarah Palin?

Not only does Alaska remain something of a frontier state for most Americans, an off-the-radar territory in day-to-day terms, but few outside of its borders have ever heard of Sarah Palin, who was only elected as its Governor 18 months ago.

It seems that with this decision Republican candidate McCain has thrown away the one political weapon that he has been consistently able to hammer Obama with, namely the Illinois Senator's perceived inexperience at the national level.

Senator McCain has picked a running-mate - someone who could be one heartbeat away from the Presidency if the Republicans prevail in November - who has even less national experience than his Democratic rival. By selecting Governor Palin, Senator McCain has placed in jeopardy a major Republican campaign talking point namely, the argument that the Republican ticket would bring greater experience in the field of foreign policy to the White House. The choice of Governor Palin cannot help but call into question Senator McCain's judgment given she is a complete non-starter in the area of international relations.

Governor Palin may have visited the Alaskan National Guard during their tours of duty in Iraq. And at least she has never claimed to have come under enemy fire while visiting combat zones (as Senator Hillary Clinton falsely claimed during the Democratic primaries). But there's no getting away from the fact that her knowledge of the world outside of Alaska is limited (she didn't even have a passport until she became Governor and was expected to take part in international trade conferences). Presumably she is even now undergoing a number of crash courses on international affairs being conducted by experts in this area. But haven't the Republicans said, apropos Senator Obama, that the Presidency isn't a position that lends itself on-the-job training I would argue that the same holds true of the Vice-Presidency.

It appears that Governor Palin is heading towards a mauling when she takes part in the upcoming Vice-Presidential debate with Senator Obama's ruuning-mate Senator Joseph Biden, a man who has more than three decades of experience in the area of foreign affairs.

It is clear that American women will almost certainly decide the outcome of the November election. Most polls estimate that up to 54 percent of likely voters are going to be female so it's not surprising both parties are assiduously wooing that constituency.

The Democrats can point to the fact that although Senator Hilary Clinton was unsuccessful in her bid to be the party's standard bearer in the Presidential election, women hold all manner of leading positions in the party (just look at Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi) and issues that are important to women feature prominently in the Democratic agenda.

The Republicans, though, seem to be trying to take advantage of the bitter taste that was left in the mouths of Senator Clinton's supporters after she failed to secure her party's nomination in the hard-fought primary battles earlier this year. Senator McCain clearly wants to win over some of Senator Clinton's frustrated female following by tapping Governor Palin as his running mate. I understand his logic but, still, Senator McCain may be engaging in the biggest political gamble of his career by assuming Senator Clinton's female political support base will opt for him over Senator Obama just because he has put a woman on the Republican ticket.

We will just have to wait to see what the polls say about this new turn of political events. Even so, early reaction by Senator Clinton's women political supporters seem to indicate that candidate McCain's choice of a woman, a very conservative political woman at that, may not have struck the right chord. Some have expressed the opinion that they feel insulted. After all, Governor Palin is no Senator Clinton in terms of her character, experience and core beliefs.

Though the Republican conservative political support base, especially that party's extreme right, may be happy in view of their suspicions that candidate McCain may not be conservative enough in view of his maverick past his choice in Governor Palin remains a political wager which history will judge as a stroke of political genius if it helps him to win the Presidency or the greatest of political follies if he falls short.