SAN FRANCISCO -- The Bermuda Biological Station for Research may pick up key funding for a project that has been well received at the RIMS Conference.

The Bio Station is again this year sharing a booth with the Bank of Bermuda, a symbolic move that underscores the fact the project has broad implications for business.

Two articles have recently been published on the Atlantic Global Change Institute (AGCI) and the Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) that have brought a lot of visitors to the booth.

Bio Station director Dr. Tony Knap authored one article for British magazine The Review entitled "Bridging Science and Business'' and a second on the subject is the feature story in the April issue of Risk Management, called "A Changing World: Science, Business and Risk Prediction.'' The substance of both articles is that scientists are getting better and better at predicting catastrophic events and with sophisticated modelling techniques, they will have information that will be extremely valuable for insurance executives, among others.

Dr. Knap said: "We've had people who have read these articles and have been seeking us out. That's a change from last year when we were pulling people off the floor and telling them to come and look at our display.'' Since last year, when a sophisticated computer programme was set up at the booth to highlight the predictive capability, AGCI has raised most of the funding needed for the first year of the project.

Dr. Knap said: "Not only have we had people come to see us at the booth who insure catastrophic risks on hurricanes, but we have also had people who insure ski areas for snow.

"Some of the things we are doing can be used to predict snow seasons a year ahead. People who are involved in floods in Europe and other places are also interested. There is interest from a wide range of the insurance industry, including people who insure crops and people who trade in crops and people who trade in the futures market.

"We are seeing a list of opportunities. One of the real ones seems to be devising courses and software and CD-ROM type devices so that we can educate people even more.

"We have been talking to the RIMS people about perhaps a course for risk managers on the predictive power of science and hopefully getting something like that as a requirement for risk managers.

"The opportunities for Bermuda of course expand, because we would hold such courses in Bermuda.'' The Bio Station has hired someone to put together software packages and the BBSR is about to go live with their own pages on Internet in a month, allowing people to dial up and get the latest hurricane forecast, and climate forecast for a year ahead.

"There has been an incredible amount of interest,'' said Dr. Knap. "We've a large team here at RIMS this year. The Bank of Bermuda booth has the theme `Good information makes good decisions'. People talk to both the bank and us.

"It's been a successful show and we think we have been able to secure further funding. We are asking companies for large amounts of money to support this effort and so far they seem to be coming through.

"We need about $1 million a year and so far we have about $600,000. There have been two very serious funding possibilities from some very large insurance companies here who have global scope.

"And last week we were in Europe and spoke to other insurers there. We want to get a European interest and an Asian interest. We want to get a split between brokers, direct insurers and reinsurers, and we're just about there.'' The BBSR is in the process of hiring a new climate modeller, who will be on staff. They are also in the process of negotiating for a super computer.

"There is no reason why Bermuda can't be known as the place where science and business connect and the predictability of climate becomes a real focused thing.

"The only movable heat is in the ocean and that determines climate. We understand that as oceanographers. We have satellites that can measure the ocean surface height now within one centimetre and we have access to all of that by hiring in all of the top scientists in the world. They are all on retainer as part of this programme,'' he said.

Dr. Tony Knap