the recession, Chamber of Commerce president Mr. Louis Mowbray said yesterday.

And he said there are several things the Tourism Ministry could do -- including developing European tourism -- to boost the Island's "steadily falling'' visitor arrivals.

"Simply clinging to what was done successfully in the past will not save us from the outside changes of the nineties. That goes for all of us,'' he told the Hamilton Rotary Club at its weekly luncheon.

Air visitor arrivals for the first half of the year have plunged by 20 percent compared to 1990, when the recession began setting in, he said. "If we continue at this rate for the rest of the year we will have 82,000 fewer air visitors than we received in 1990,'' he said. "To make matters worse the average length of stay has also been falling.'' Tourist spending has fallen too, he said, by as much 30 percent for the first quarter of 1992, or more than $15 million over the past two years.

In short, Bermuda is heading for the "most difficult winter it has seen in many years'', Mr. Mowbray predicted. Borrowing a phrase from a television news commentator, he called the recession "the slump that won't go away''.

"There is no magic wand to make things better,'' Mr. Mowbray said. "There is clearly a need for change -- change is being thrust upon us -- and inevitably some of that change will be difficult and painful...It has been clear for some time that bigger initiatives need to be taken to safeguard the Island's future.'' He said there are two ongoing "initiatives'' being undertaken by Government with the help of business community.

He pointed to the recently announced "major promotion'' of Bermuda during the winter months led by hotels and the Tourism Ministry.

The promotion involves reduced prices if the temperature falls below a certain level, plus other forms of added value and a host of winter activities.

The second initiative, he said, is Government's Commission on Competitiveness headed by banker Mr. Jim Brock. The commission is appointing task forces to review each of the elements of the tourist industry and recommend improvements and changes.

But the committee's findings are not expected before spring, 1993. Meanwhile, the Tourism Ministry should be looking to attract visitors from Europe and Japan.

"One of the few bright spots in the air visitor arrivals report for June was that arrivals from Europe increased by 46 percent. The number was not large -- only 859 -- but the increase was significant,'' he said.

"Current exchange rates favour Europeans and we do not need a task force to tell us that we should be developing this new market.'' Mr. Mowbray said Government and the business community should also be trying to make Bermuda more interesting to visitors.

"Visitors constantly observe that there is not enough evening activity in Bermuda. Shops are mostly closed and night life is limited. St. George's has recently begun to increase activities and has made Water Street a pedestrian street. The Chamber is developing ideas to improve Hamilton. We need to find ways to make the Island more fun as a place to visit.'' And he said more is needed to be done to make Bermuda less expensive.

"Nearly all our visitors see the expense of a vacation in Bermuda as its biggest drawback -- especially in times of recession. We need some innovative solutions to that problem and perhaps this year's winter's promotion is a beginner.'' There are "countless'' other ways to boost tourism, he said.

Mr. Mowbray said a second bright spot for Bermuda was the rise in cruise ship visitors. The number rose from 42,000 for the first half of 1990 to 50,000 for the same period in 1992 -- an increase of almost 20 percent, he said, adding in July and August the regular calling cruise ships have been almost always fully booked.

"This reflects the fact that more and more visitors prefer all-inclusive vacation packages -- partly because of the recession,'' he said. "It is encouraging that the Westward and the Nordic Prince will be replaced by larger ships in 1993 and a fifth ship will be added to the regular service in 1994.

However, this does not begin to make up for the loss of air visitors, either in numbers or in contribution to the local economy.'' PHOTO Mr. Louis Mowbray.