As the Island steers its motor car laws into the twentieth century, the memory of a more peaceful time must weigh heavily in the minds of those who remember another Bermuda. There was a time, only 50 years ago, of push-bikes and horse-drawn carriages.

Today, with nearly 50,000 vehicles swamping Bermuda's roads, those horse and buggy days are nothing more than a distant memory. With plans to broaden the sale of second-hand cars through the introduction of a so-called "used car market'', there is little doubt that Bermuda's roads will become even busier in the months ahead. While Transport Minister Ralph Marshall is sure there will be an increase in cars on the roads, the degree of increase will likely be small, probably about five percent, he guesses. "Put it this way,'' Marshall says, "the number of cars isn't going to decrease, but how much it will increase one can only guess.'' His plan, due to take effect in April, is to allow car owners to sell their cars without waiting a year to buy a new one, something they have been restricted from doing since the Motor Car Act was first introduced in 1951.

Marshall says the scheme will help the country's balance of payments by reducing the amount of foreign currency leaving the Island to pay for new cars, and help keep local mechanics employed. It will also make cars more affordable to those who, for financial considerations, have either not bought a car at all, or have made do with their car for more years than they would have otherwise. "One of the biggest problems we've had is with young couples who have started out with a small sports car, and have been unable to sell their car for a larger model once they have started a family. For most young couples, they can't afford to dump their car to buy a brand new one, and they can't really go without for a year either.'' Presently the law says that motorists who want to sell their car and replace it with a newer model have three options: wait a year to buy a new one, scrap it, or sell it for use as a taxi. But, as Marshall admits, the mandatory year-long wait period is not a realistic option for those who already own a car. Nor is it any longer realistic to hope to sell a private car for use as a taxi, as most taxi operators are opting for the six-seater vans in order to be more competitive in a declining tourism industry. And the remaining option, that motorists dump their cars in order to avoid the 12-month waiting period, is not an affordable option for many residents, who are instead getting as long a life as possible out of their cars.

"I don't think it's right that people have to dump their cars, which are still good value, and worth some money,'' Marshall says. "I would think that with a second-hand car market, we won't see good value cars going to waste as often. I think we'll see second-hand cars being sold for as little as $1,000.

And the fact that people will be able to get some money for their cars to go toward buying a new one, will mean that less money is actually leaving the country.'' The only restriction on the buying and selling of second-hand cars will be that owners wanting to sell their cars must have them examined and licensed in another person's name before buying a new one. While that measure will prevent used car dealerships from opening, it won't stop existing dealers from entering the second-hand car business. As one dealer put it: "If someone comes to us and says they want to buy a new car from us, but first they have sell their old car, we're going to help them. There's an incentive for us to sell their old car for them if they're going to do business with us for a new car.'' One point raised in the discussion over the second-hand car market is that it will mean fewer brand new cars, and many more older and possibly shabbier-looking cars on the roads ...which is partly true. But all cars, new or old, will still have to undergo the stringent licensing test at the Transport Control Department every year. "There will be no lowering of standards, I can assure you,'' says Marshall. In fact, Donald Dane, who heads the Transport Control Department, says cars being examined for transfer of ownership undergo a harsher test than those examined for relicensing. "We check the mechanics, brakes, lights, windscreen, wipers, indicators, inside, the body and paint. For someone who's buying a car from someone else and is having the car tested, we want to ensure the person that the car they're buying is going to be worth it. We have to make sure that the car is not a hazard to other drivers or the public.'' Dane remembers one incident when members of the public called TCD to complain about the condition of a particular car that was on the road. "I got the licence number and called the owner. It was an elderly gentleman and his car was 12 years old. He told me that he wanted to get rid of the car, thathis son had a four-year-old car that he wanted to sell in order to buy a new one. The son offered to pass his older car on to his father so he could buy a new one, but that sort of thing has not been allowed under the law. So here was this man driving a 12-year-old car and not able to replace it.'' The plan to change the law and allow the sale of private cars without any wait period represents a major policy shift for the Government, which has for years recognised traffic congestion on the Island's roads as one of it greatest challenges. Almost more surprising though is the lack of public opposition to the plan, especially when almost 75 percent of those polled for the Bermuda 2000 questionnaire favoured controls on car use and ownership, and nearly half supported stricter controls.

The National Trust opposes the plan, and so does environmentalist and independent MP Stuart Hayward, but the general public has so far remained relatively quiet on the matter. While it has been widely recognised that there is a need to reduce congestion, this is a move which is certain to increase it.

Marshall believes that Bermuda residents have simply come to accept traffic congestion as a way of life. "It's what you're used to. In the 70s people complained about traffic all the time. But now we hear few complaints. So far, we've not been able to come up with any ways of limiting the number of cars -we could raise the age limit, but in order for that to have any impact on traffic, we'd have to raise the driving age to 30. we could require that every car on the road have at least two designated drivers. There are about 34,000 people eligible to drive a car in Bermuda, so that would restrict the number of cars to half the number of eligible drivers to 17,000.

"We could recommend that car owners whose license plates end with an odd number drive on set days only, and those whose license plates end with an even number drive on other days. I would think that that would be our next step, but it's very hard to sell to the public. I doubt we'll see that happen in the next 10 years.'' Hayward, however, doesn't agree. He says it's essential that Government put a cap on the number of cars now. To go along with that, the public transportation system must be improved so that it is an attractive alternative to owning a car and driving it every day. "Fairness is not the key issue here. Someone somewhere down the line is going to have to bite the bullet. The current administration says that everyone has a right to drive a car, but I believe that people have the right to transportation. Owning a car is a privilege, not a right.

"I think the Government should declare that given the size of the Island, and the fact that there is no room to create more road space, there will be a ceiling on the number of cars allowed on the road.'' An acceptable level of cars, he says, would be about 10,000 - half of what it is today. But in order to achieve that, Government should say no more cars now, and then reduce the total number by attrition. In addition, the public transport system must be integrated so that people can get where they want to go, whether it's by bus or ferry.

Lee Davidson, who chairs the National Trust's environmental committee, agrees.

"The problem of public transport is that it's not properly utilised. Look at all the people who drive a car to work, and on the way home, they stop at the grocery store, and the drycleaners. You can't do that on a bus. Public transport hasn't accomplished any of that. It has to take into consideration that many people are not just going from point A to point B.

"I think one problem is that we're all willing to accept traffic as part of our lifestyle. We adapt, but we have to ask ourselves, `Is that the way we want to live?'Are we going to allow as many cars as are needed on the roads, or are we going to try and control the number of cars. When does the tolerance end. There is no right answer. What we're saying is that Government has to have a long-term aim, it must decide what it's policy is on the issue of traffic.'' A string of reports commissioned by the Government over the past decade have underscored the importance of controlling traffic if the quality of life in Bermuda is to be maintained. The report of the Traffic Review Committee, appointed by the Government in 1979 to respond to the number of private car registrations, recommended the number of cars be limited to 14,500 anticipating it would reach that level by 1983. More recently, a report released in 1989 by UK consultants Alastair Dick & Associates, said then that the Island's 140 miles of public road were packed to capacity, estimating there was one vehicle to every 4.5 metres of roadway.

The report said there was a growing concern about continued increase in road traffic and added that immediate action to reduce the Island's car fleet was needed. "Bermuda has a very high density ofcars per kilometre of public road.

...There has been a long established concern about the intrusive nature of the motor car - the first car on the Island appearing only in 1946.

...Unfortunately, but perhaps not surprisingly, the natural beauty of the Island is threatened by the prosperity it has encouraged. ...The growing use of private transport is beginning to cause environmental problems in terms of congestion, discomfort and pollution.'' In fact, the study found that traffic flows into Hamilton, which it said had increased 40 percent between 1972 and 1989, had contributed to increased levels of lead in the air in that area. So much so that the lead levels measured at Crow Lane (before the construction of the four lane highway) were only slightly less than those on the M4 going into London's Heathrow Airport.

Though there has been a switch to unleaded gasoline since then, the study added that unleaded fuel would contribute to high levels of carbon dioxide in the air.

Marshall, who was also Transport Minister in the 1970s, says approximately 66 percent of households (or more precisely residential valuation units) owned cars then. Today, 20 years later, that number has risen to about 75 percent, and with the introduction of a second-hand car market, he expects it will climb to 80 percent. He says it is unlikely there will be much further growth in the number of cars on the road in the next 10 years, though the potential for growth depends on the number of RVUs. But, as Hayward points out, there is no fixed limit on the number of RVUs, which can easily be increased through the subdivision of property and existing buildings.

Latest statistics show there are 19,712 private cars registered. Marshall says that with the loss of about 4,000 contract workers, there must be fewer cars on the road today that there were two years ago. Taking that into consideration, he adds that even if there is a marginal increase in the number of cars when the second-hand car market takes effect, the number of cars will probably not match what it was two years ago. Public transport incentive programmes, like the 10 cent fare for senior citizens, have also helped to reduce the amount motorists are using their vehicles.

John Bento, manager of Holmes Williams and Purvey and chairman of the car dealers division of the Chamber of Commerce, says fewer cars have been imported in recent years, adding it is likely that with growth in a second-hand car market, the demand for new cars will be reduced further. Car imports, according to the Department of Statistics, have dropped to approximately 1,000 a year from more than 3,000 a decade ago.

The Dick Report, in its proposal for action, suggested that a second-hand car market would cut the demand for new cars, and therefore stabilise the number of cars on the road. It found that 40 percent of car sales in Bermuda were brand new cars, and therefore net additions to the car fleet, and added that growth in the second-hand car market would offset the price expected to be paid for a car. The report suggested that, along with the introduction of a second-hand car market, the number of cars be restricted by suspending the number of `new' car sales (or sales other than of replacement cars) for a period of five years. It also recommended that motorists who are convicted of more than one serious traffic offence during a given period (it suggests five years), should be disqualified from owning a car.

"...The increasing number of cars is damaging the Bermudian environment.

...The Motor Car Act 1951 is relatively ineffective in its original intention of linking the size of the car fleet to that necessarily required by the population, i.e. one car being available for a family group. ...The public cannot expect the Bermuda image to survive the unrestrained growth of car ownership.'' The number of cars registered with the Transport Control Department has nearly doubled over the past two decades, a far cry from the first year of private motor transport in 1946, when there were just 375 cars. It didn't take long, however, for the motor car to catch on. Within two years, there were more than 1,000 cars, and within 10 years, more than 5,000. In 1962, when the number of cars registered then was slightly less than one-third it is today, planning consultant Thornley Dyer had warned of the pitfalls of failing to control car ownership: "Traffic is already crowding the roads to a degree that is neither comfortable nor safe and many are filled to capacity during peak hours.'' New legislation means motorists won't have to dump cars at the airports (left) before buying a new one. But environmental critics fear it will lead to even more overcrowding of Bermuda's roads (below). "The number of cars isn't going to decrease,'' admits Transport Minister Ralph Marshall,'' but how much it will increase one can only guess.''