Bermuda-based scientists will take part in monitoring the effects of the recent Gulf oil spill disaster, even though effects on the Island's eco-system are expected to be minimal.

Scientists are estimating that the Deepwater Horizon oil rig that exploded 40 miles off the coast of Mississippi on April 20, could be pumping 210,000 gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico, a day. And that's a low estimate.

Tony Knapp, president and director of the Bermuda Institute for Ocean Sciences (BIOS) and Dr. Fred Ming, Government Director of Environmental protection, recently travelled to Louisiana to meet with the world's top marine scientists to discuss the crisis.

They took part in the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Scientific Symposium, co-hosted by The Consortium for Ocean Leadership. BIOS is a member institution of Ocean Leadership. This is a Washington DC-based charity that represents many leading public and private ocean research and education institutions.

Jessie Monix spoke with Dr. Knapp shortly after the symposium to learn more about the oil spill.

Q: Can you get across the gravity of this oil spill?

A: The spill is very serious and I believe it will make history as it is a high-pressure spill where the blowout-preventer did not function.

The oil is uncontrolled; this is a very different situation from a tanker or pipeline accident. In 1979, the Ixtoc I spill in the Gulf of Mexico lasted eight months. However it was only at 50m.

Q:What makes this spill so bad?

A: What is central to the severity of this disaster is that it is so far down — in 5,000 feet of water. Oil spreads quickly in relatively warm water, which in a way is good as a lot of the lighter hydrocarbons will evaporate, reducing the total amount. However, the downside is that the heavier oil will mix with water, creating a very thick 'Chocolate Mousse', which is what they are seeing wash up on the beaches of the panhandle of Florida.

The Gulf is severely impacted and with the death of the rig workers this is a human and environmental tragedy for the gulf.

Q: Tell me a bit about the symposium.

A: This was the third meeting of non-federal scientists to discuss the urgent issues at hand. The discussions will assist federal agencies including Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and United States Geological Survey (USGS) in identifying existing gaps in the scientific knowledge, in exploring the opportunities to fill those gaps, and in developing priorities for short- and long-term research into the impact of the spill on the Gulf ecosystems and human health.

Q: Will Bermuda feel any effects from the oil spill?

A: Tar balls may reach us at some stage. The spill is not likely to be a cohesive spill. We will only be reached by low concentrations of oil because the ocean will degrade a great deal of it on the way here.

Q: What is the route the oil would have to take to get to us?

A: In order to reach Bermuda, this oil has to get into the Gulf Loop current, pass around the strait of Florida, into the Gulf Stream, go Northwest of us then North. After that, the oil will need to find its way into a Gulf Stream eddy, which may finally deposit it in Bermuda.

Q: If it did reach Bermuda, how long would it be before that happened?

A: If the leak is not stopped it will increase the chance of more tar in the Atlantic. The earliest relief well is scheduled for mid-August. The Loop Current is very unpredictable.

Q: Would this damage our coral reef system?

A: In the most likely scenario of tar balls crossing our reef platform it is possible corals will be affected but will be mild with respect to the damages to the Gulf region.

Q:What about hurricanes?

A: The temperature anomalies of the MDR (Main Development Region) for hurricanes, off the coast of Africa, are higher than recorded this year, so there is a significant chance that a hurricane or tropical storm may change this scenario.

Q: What effect would hurricanes have on the oil spill?

A: No one really knows the effect of a hurricane on an oil spill as this hasn't happened. Although there were some high winds in June 1979 Ixtoc I oil spill, and also during the Braer spill there were very high winds which blew the oil onto land and houses. In a hurricane all booms would fail so there would be no defence and the oil would be pushed further inland. Also the high sea state would enhance the "mousse" formation and the weathering process. The fact that all mitigation efforts would have to cease, does bear mentioning.

Q: What is BIOS doing to monitor the situation.

A: BIOS is hoping to access proprietary industry models from the oil and gas industry that have very good predictive models. NOAA uses a simulation model with a dye, that is both chemically resistant and biologically inert. Oil is neither. In the NOAA model, the dye takes 77 days to pass around the southern tip of Florida, which is still hundreds of miles from Bermuda. The oil is "Louisiana Light Crude" which weathers and forms tar quickly. It clumps together. As it makes its ways here, the thousands of miles of ocean will change its characteristics quickly.

Q: What about research?

A: BIOS scientists will be carrying out research, but it is still in the planning stages.

Q: Who were some of the speakers at the conference?

A: The speakers included the Incident Commander, Admiral Thad Allen, the Administrator of the EPA, Lisa Jackson; Dr. Jane Lubchenco of NOAA; and Dr. Marcia McNutt, Director USGS - who spoke at BIOS in 2008. Long time Trustee and Partnership for Observation of the Global Oceans (POGO) Programme visiting professor Dr. John Farrington led a discussion titled "Conducting Oil Spill Research in a Regulatory Framework". Dr. Farrington was involved with the Ixtoc I oil spill research cruise.

Q: Did you actually see the effects on wildlife in Louisiana while you were down there?

A: No I did not. We did not have an opportunity first hand to see what was going on. The media images give a strong indication of the damage that is unfolding.