Killer hurricanes like Fabian or Katrina may reoccur more frequently than experts previously thought.

That's the word from Dr. Louis K. McNally, an American meteorologist who has used historic data from Bermuda to prove that current statistics may be wrong.

Dr. McNally, a professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, Florida, published a research paper in the July issue of 'Weather' magazine.

"I am one of many weather researchers trying to establish a longer term hurricane database," said Dr. McNally in a telephone interview. "Current concrete data only goes back to the 1970s.

"Prior to that time we didn't have satellites. With satellite analysis we can pretty much nail it down.

"Prior to that there was a whole lot of guess work going on."

A longer database would allow scientists to figure out if the world really is experiencing stronger or more frequent hurricanes.

To construct the weather more than a 100 years ago, meteorologists have to be creative.

Dr. McNally used diaries, journals, newspapers and also ships' protests in the Bermuda Archives. Ships' protests are legal documents filed by sea captains or ship owners when a ship received damage at sea, often due to bad weather.

Dr. McNally called this process of piecing together the weather, 'forensic synopic analysis'.

"With that process I can take historical accounts that don't necessarily have to do with observing the weather," he said. "I can get weather information out of them."

Dr. McNally discovered the ships' protests while here on vacation.

"It was quite a while ago when I was pursuing my doctorate," said Dr. McNally. "I was reconstructing the year 1785. I was trying to get daily weather maps for the northeastern United States from that time. I had a number of diaries and things like that.

"Everywhere I travelled during that time I would go to the local archives to see if they had anything from that time."

While in Bermuda on a three day, four night visit, Dr. McNally took one of his days out to spend in the Bermuda Archives.

"There were government records, and city records," he said. "I asked the person at the desk if there was anything else from 1785. She said 'no', but another lady said 'we might have one more thing'."

The archivist came back with a microfilm of ships' protests.

"No one has ever looked at these in terms of meteorology," said Dr. McNally. "Sure enough in the ships' protests there were maybe a dozen from 1785. Half of them had to do with specific weather events."

For example, on February 2, 1785, Capt. Francis Hay, Master of the Vigilant reported that while sailing from Hampton, Virginia on January 26 encountered a storm which carried away his foretopsail yard, "the wind blowing excessively hard from the northeast by east to north west accompanied by thunder, lightening, heavy rain and cross sea".

The document went on to detail the weather over the next couple of days.

"The captain was very precise about how the weather affected the sails," said Dr. McNally. "Back then if you were a captain or a ship owner you were personally liable for the cargo and sometimes for the ship.

"If you couldn't prove that it was the weather then the insurance company would take your house or wealth."

Dr. McNally said he chose to study 1785 for a number of reasons.

"There were a number of diaries in the United States, some just ending, some from the middle and some just starting. There was some overlap."

Ideally, he would like to reconstruct the entire 1780s.

"But that would be a job for an entire department of meteorologists," he said.

He said the data he has gathered should have interest in the insurance and reinsurance industries.

"When you get a strong storm people do the analysis and say 'you wouldn't expect to see another storm like that for another 300 or 400 years'."

Dr. McNally's research suggests that this may not be correct.

He found one storm that passed Bermuda in 1785 and ended up causing heavy flooding in Maine.

The storm and flooding seemed to repeat itself again in the 1990s with Hurricane Lili.

"The storm turned out to be nearly identical to the 1785 storm," he said. "The similarities were remarkable.

"That is 211 years apart not 350 to 500 years apart. That is what I found from researching just one year."

"The implications are that it could happen more frequently. If we can show that any kind of storm or weather pattern occurs more frequently it would have a direct bearing on how the insurance companies would set their rates with their customers. It was fascinating."

Dr. McNally said if he reconstructed the weather for 10 to 50 years of the 1700s he might find even more similar storms to modern day ones.

In addition to visiting the island on vacation, Dr. McNally has also worked with the Bermuda Weather Service.

"For three winters I was on the desk helping to forecast the weather," said Dr. McNally. "I miss doing daily forecasts for my friends in Bermuda," he said. "They say that they miss me."

Kimberley J. Zuill at the Bermuda Weather Service and another meteorology professor, Kirk Allen Maasch, also helped Dr. McNally with his paper.

"Kim helped me with getting the final editing done on the paper," said Dr. McNally. "She double checked on the number of protests done for the paper. She was a big help.

"Kirk Maasch is a professor of the University of Maine. He was the chair of my PhD advisory committee and holds an interest in this too."