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UBP questions independent opinion poll

Sean Crockwell

The UBP has questioned an independent survey for The Royal Gazette which showed support for Government among black voters up by 36 per cent.

The latest opinion polls, conducted by Research Innovations, revealed the Progressive Labour Party (PLP) is widening its lead over the UBP.

If there was an election tomorrow, 38.7 percent of the population said they would vote for the Government, and 28.3 percent the UBP.

The survey showed backing for the PLP up another 8.6 per cent, from 30.1 percent in March, with the UBP trailing with a gain of only 4.1 percent since its 24.2 percent rating two months ago.

The Research Innovations Poll surveyed 405 people between May 20 to 22. It has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

Both the Premier and UBP leader Michael Dunkley refused to comment on the results, published in this newspaper on Friday.

However, UBP chairman Shawn Crockwell yesterday criticised the company this newspaper uses, accusing Research Innovations of political bias, because its president Walton Brown is a cousin of the Premier.

Mr. Crockwell said that because Mr. Brown may be running as a potential PLP candidate himself, the results were bound to be skewed in the Government’s favour.

This is despite the survey also suggesting that Dr. Brown’s popularity is slipping.

The statistics showed 45.4 percent of voters approved of the way Dr. Brown was handling his job as Premier — but two months ago the figure was 57.4 percent.

However, in a statement Mr. Crockwell said: “The saying ‘the message is as credible as the messenger’ holds true in relation to the published results of the latest public opinion poll commissioned by The Royal Gazette.

“The United Bermuda Party has for some time been sceptical of the reliability of ‘an independent opinion poll’ conducted by the close cousin of Premier Ewart Brown.

“But when that cousin becomes the PLP’s retained pollster and is intricately involved in the process to select candidates of the leader’s choosing, the United Bermuda Party becomes even more doubtful.

“When now, as it appears, that the cousin of the Premier is set to become an endorsed candidate of the PLP, with a constituency already identified, it moves the entire exercise from the questionable to ridiculous.

“How else can one characterise the flattering findings of a poll conducted by a prospective PLP candidate at a time when that party is immersed in internal warfare and strife?

“This prospective PLP candidate is asking the country to accept as credible a poll that finds the PLP to be stronger in the aftermath of a month of internal strife and conflict than it was at the beginning of the period, when there was no closure of the Health Clinic or the unaccounted $500 million to defend.

“The United Bermuda Party is dismayed that>The Royal Gazette would continue to package and portray a declared PLP political hopeful as an independent pollster.

“Consequently, the United Bermuda Party will at this time not dignify the questionable findings of this latest public relations exercise, with a further response.”

Mr. Brown was unavailable for comment last night. It has not been confirmed whether he will run as a PLP candidate in the next election, but it is thought he could make a run for Pembroke West, currently held by independent Jamahl Simmons who is retiring.

Editor of The Royal Gazette, William Zuill, said last night: “I’m aware of the UBP’s concerns about the alleged bias of Walton Brown with regard to the polling conducted by his company.

“When we first contracted with Research Innovations we spent a considerable amount of time talking with Walton Brown about the risks of accusations of bias, given that he had previously done polls for the PLP, and because he was and is a well known Independence advocate.

“He made the case that his company’s activities are separate from whatever political affiliations he might have and that the success of the company depended entirely on the integrity and independence of the polling.

“It’s worth noting that his polls with regard to Independence have consistently shown large majorities are opposed to Independence, and if there is anywhere where he might want to impose his own personal views it might be on this question. He has conducted polls now for some years and it’s fair to say that his polling with regard to the last two general elections called the results about as accurately as one could expect a poll to do so.

“On that basis I’m still happy with the quality of his survey and at this time see no reason to change.

“Having said that, we are happy to run other polls that may contradict his findings, provided we are satisfied they represent accurate samples of the demographics of the voting population.”

Mr. Zuill added: “There has been some talk that Mr. Brown may well be a candidate in the next general election.

“If that were to occur that would be a clear conflict of interest and we would have to look very seriously at whether we were able to continue our contract, and it may well be that he would not want to continue to conduct polls for us, if that was the case, if he was adopted as a candidate.”