A hurricane expert is to provide a fascinating insight into this force of nature at a lecture at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences.

BIOS senior research scientist Dr. Rick Murnane will talk on ‘Hurricanes, Climate and Climate Change’ at the Institute tomorrow. He will discuss how climates have influenced hurricane activity in the past and talk on theories of what could happen in the future.

“Hurricanes are an important part of our weather and climate. The oceans and atmosphere influence the frequency of hurricanes over a season, and the intensity and track of individual hurricanes within a season,” he said. “We know that characteristics of the oceans and atmosphere change through time, and we now have evidence that hurricane activity has changed over thousands of years in response to shifts in oceanic and atmospheric conditions.

“An understanding of the relationship raises an important question: ‘How will hurricane activity change in the future as climate warms in response to an increase in greenhouse gases?’.

Dr. Murnane has travelled from Maryland, US, to give tomorrow night’s lecture. He said: “People don’t know exactly how hurricanes form but there are a certain set of requirements. You need a warm surface ocean, a moist, stable atmosphere, and some rotational turns in the atmosphere.

“Often the strongest hurricanes form as a result of eastern waves in the atmosphere from Africa. The waves come off of Africa but you need all those other conditions for a hurricane to get going.

“The talk will mainly look at how climate has an impact on hurricanes. There’s been a significant debate about what’s going on right now, and whether the variability is indicative of a man-made signal (eg. climate change) or is just variability.

“Whatever the cause of it, I think that the damage and deaths associated with hurricanes are likely to increase, not only because of changes in climate but also a growing population and because we are wealthier and have more objects.

“My personal opinion is that we will continue to see many changes in extreme events as a result of man-made climate change, and there are good theoretical reasons as to why hurricanes should be more intense in the future. However I could not tell you how fast and how far those changes will go.”

“If you look at hurricane activity in the Atlantic over the past 100 years, there’s been decades where activity is higher than average. We are in a period now where this is the case. This is in part due to the fact that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are warmer than average. There is a big debate as to whether this is due to global warming.”

Dr. Murnane said: “At the lecture I’m not going to give people a definitive answer but the goal is to give them a better understanding of the current issues in the scientific community in an accessible manner.”

The senior research scientist also works with Bermuda’s reinsurance companies in his capacity as Programme Director for the Institute’s Risk Prediction Initiative.

The Initiative was formed in 1994 with reinsurers and US insurers in the wake of Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The RPI organises workshops on hurricanes, earthquakes, wild fires and European wind storms.

“Our focus tends to be on the impact of hurricanes on the US as that is the biggest risk exposure of our sponsors,” said Dr. Murnane.

“What they really want to have is a better understanding of the probabilities and intensity of an event to properly price for the risk. Scientists like the RPI because it gives them a way to have their work be more relevant to society. They find interacting with people in the business world interesting as well.”

Dr. Murnane, who lived on Bermuda for three years, said the Island had much to teach the rest of the world when it came to damage limitation.

“What Bermuda has really brought out is the importance of how a society adapts to their environment. Fabian came through in 2003 and, relative to what would have happened in the US, there was a small amount of damage. If it had struck the US the amount of damage would have been much greater. That is mainly the way Bermuda houses are designed, rather than the structures in the US. The houses are designed to withstand 100mph winds.

“It shows that if we build a certain way it does reduce the damage. In Florida the more recent structures have withstood damage from the 2004 and 2005 storms better than the older buildings.”

What Dr. Murnane would now like to see is more US investment into satellite systems and ‘real time’ sensors of upper ocean temperature. ‘Hurricanes, Climate and Climate Change’ takes place at Hanson Hall, BIOS, at 7 p.m. Admission is $10 for members, $15 for non-members, reservations required. A cash bar is available from 6.30 p.m. To reserve your seat, contact 297 1880 extension 204 or email: vanessa.shorto[AT]bios.edu