While no one other than the Premier can predict when it will be held, pundits from all sides agree on one thing — the coming election could well be the nastiest ever.Political scientist, pollster and prospective PLP candidate Walton Brown said: “I think it is going to get very ugly.”

He said the Bermuda Housing Corporation Police report leak was a political ploy based on rehashing five-year-old accusations on the assumption there would be a July election.

And he said the UBP’s sustained attack on the Premier had created a “blacklash” — an entrenchment of black support for Dr. Brown.

“For me, and I want to see a society where people aren’t voting on racial lines, the UBP have done that to a far greater extent than anything we have seen for years.”

Former UBP MP Jamahl Simmons, who now sits as an Independent agreed Bermuda was in for a rough ride. He said: “I suspect this is going to be the nastiest election ever.

“The release of the BHC files has set the standard for the election of what is acceptable. It has opened the door for a lot more attacks on people’s personal lives. We are entering a new era in politics in that regard. I think this is the first election where we will see issues really pushed to the bottom.

“When the UBP goes negative it galvanises the support base of the PLP. You might get a fellow who says he is p*ssed off at Ewart Brown and he is p*ssed off with the PLP, then when the attacks come he says you are attacking my cousin, my friend. Suddenly someone who decided he wasn’t going to vote feels very motivated.”

Mr. Simmons said the moment the issues go racial, the UBP lose. “The problem is credibility,” he said. “That’s a long-standing issue. The election is called, they go on the attack, the issue gets twisted against them and bam, they are in the same predicament.”

Mr. Simmons, who is retiring at the coming election, thinks the PLP will win again, with the vote count closer to the seat count. While he thinks the UBP could pick up some new seats he thinks the Opposition could lose MPs David Dodwell and Suzann Holshouser.

He says unless it pulls out a platform which really catches fire the party will probably end up with 12 seats as the PLP makes a net gain of two, giving it 24. But with recent polls showing only a small minority of black voters were backing the UBP, a breakthrough is unlikely.

He said last time the UBP didn’t go negative as it was felt it would only drive the PLP’s numbers up.

“So the focus was on what we would do. There was a lot of emphasis on the housing plan. For four weeks we ran pretty much unopposed. In the final two weeks, the PLP came out with their campaign and buried us.

“They ran essentially a two-week campaign while we ran a four-week campaign. My sense in retrospect is we peaked too early. They were able to come out after we had said everything we had to say and had become competitive and monotonous so then the ground was fertile for people to listen to them.”

He said aggressive tactics merely hardened support from loyal voters in both parties but didn’t win the 20 percent of voters who were making up their minds.

“If you go on the attack, it tends to drive numbers down. It tends to remind people of how ugly politics is.

“I haven’t seen any direct appeals for the swing voters which has always been the women voters, heads of households.”

Both parties were focusing on their base, said Mr. Simmons, with the UBP hoping to do well if PLP voters stayed home.

He said the UBP’s focus on good governance wouldn’t necessarily appeal to the undecideds whereas housing and better opportunity rather than abstracts might be a better way to go while the PLP’s focus on race with the ‘Big Conversation’ was locking in its base but did little for swing voters.

Mr. Brown said the last poll by his firm Research Innovations Ltd, had shown Dr. Brown’s support plummet among whites but increase among blacks while support for the PLP was up. Asked how he thought the Premier would play the election, he said: “Being schooled in American-politics, the approach is always more aggressive.

“His approach is direct, in-your-face, American-style politics. He will cut to it and talk about what the issue is and that generates, in some segments, a very negative reaction.

“People vote against someone rather than for someone — that’s the rule of thumb for most political strategies worldwide. I happen to have questions about that but the pundits will say this is what helps to win elections.”

He said in North America it was common for 85 percent of the costs of a political campaign to be spent on negative publicity.

“But I hold the view you can hold a campaign which focuses on what you can accomplish and separates you apart form your opponent but I suspect I will be in a minority. We will see a lot of negative campaigning. It has started and it’s by no means over.”Former UBP campaign manager David Sullivan said it was difficult to predict how the PLP would run this campaign. “The Premier is well-steeped in American party politics, not necessarily of a conservative nature,” he said. “It’s an untested water — what kind of ideas will he bring from across the pond to make his campaign work?”

Both sides had shown over the last two years how negative they could get and this campaign would be no different, said Mr. Sullivan — possibly adding to voter cynicism.

He said: “I travel in strange circles, I have noticed in the last ten months, really since the debacle that occurred within the PLP last November, a growing amount of voters at all levels saying ‘You know what? I am not going to bother.’ That’s a very dangerous thing in Bermuda because, if you look at the last election, there were very few votes which actually separated the UBP and the PLP from being Government.”

But he said, with seats hanging on a knife-edge, every vote counted.

Mr. Sullivan said voters were sick of the name-calling and blaming and didn’t want leaders who lead by looking in the rear-view mirror but wanted forward-looking policies.

“The question is what are we doing for our future generations?”

The parties are now in full-fundraising mode with the PLP firing mailshots at businesses soliciting contributions with suggestions starting at $1,000 and going up to $25,000.

And Mr. Sullivan voiced dismay about what the coming campaign would cost. “It’s ridiculous — the over-expenditure of funds,” he said. “It’s in the millions. Let’s say they are both in for a million and a half, you are talking a $3-3.5 million national campaign. That’s a lot of money.”

Despite the millions being splashed out, Opposition leader Michael Dunkley is putting his faith in some old-fashioned campaigning by knocking on doors as he takes on Patrice Minors in Smith’s North, regarded by some as a PLP stronghold.

Walton Brown said that approach still had mileage. “I think there is still a large segment of Bermuda voters who want to see people — which is interesting because it implies you are prepared to make a decision on who should represent your constituency and who should run your country based on who knocks on your door.

“I just hope that is not the case but there is a compelling desire many people have to see their would-be MP on their doorstep.”And Mr. Simmons believes some seats will come down to the strength of the candidates, although that might not be enough to save Mr. Dodwell or party leader Michael Dunkley in Smith’s North. “It’s a tough area to make inroads in. Dunkley is the strongest candidate with a chance of making inroads, I don’t think anyone else could go in there and have a chance but I don’t believe he will take it.”With the election yet to be officially called the issues are still in the background. But Mr. Simmons said he expects Government to take a hard-line on immigration.

“That will be one of the turning points,” he said. “Last time that was one of the issues that hurt us.”

Even though immigration has risen under the PLP, he said the Government, rather than the Opposition, stood to gain from anger from black voters who felt dispossessed as the UBP’s were seen as pro-immigration because it was the business party.

“You can’t serve two masters, you can’t appease the business community and those who want tougher controls,” he said.

“Because of the polarisation right now, it is going to be a very difficult task to sell diversity. It’s going to be more about what you are going to do for me. I think an opportunity has been lost.

“In 2003, I felt the public gave the Government a warning shot. It was ‘I would like to see you improve’ but to the Opposition it was ‘I like what you are doing. Keep doing what you are doing’.

“It will be very interesting to see what the outcome will be in this regard. My sense from talking to voters is people aren’t quite ready for a change. It’s not enough of a motivating factor.

“The economy is going well, there is a lot less anger directed towards the Government from its traditional supporters. I think they will get another term — the questions are over the popular vote and turn-out.”