The United Bermuda Party is six points ahead of the Progressive Labour Party according to the latest poll.

The Research.bm survey puts the Opposition on 40 percent compared to 34 percent for the ruling party while 26 percent are still undecided.

Twice as many voters in the majority black population are still to make up their minds with nearly a third saying they didn’t know.

Race voting is still the largest factor in Bermuda politics with 83 percent of whites backing the UBP and just one percent backing the PLP while 16 percent are undecided.

Among blacks 55 percent are backing the PLP, 13 percent are for the UBP while 32 percent are still undeclared.

Men are more inclined to vote UBP — 42 percent favour them compared to 31 percent backing the PLP while the UBP has a slim 38-36 percent lead among women.

But an equal amount of voters from both genders are still undecided.

And the older people get, the more likely they are to vote UBP.

In the 18-49 year-old age group, the PLP has a slight edge with 38 percent of the vote compared to 34 percent for the UBP but Government support had shrunk to only 25 percent of the 50-64 year-olds and 27 percent of those aged 65 and over.

Married people are far more likely to vote UBP than single people according to the survey.

The poll of 401 Bermuda residents, conducted between July 9 and July 16, shows UBP leader Michael Dunkley ahead in the popularity stakes with 65 percent approval rating compared to 47 percent for Premier Ewart Brown.

The Premier is approved by 68 percent of blacks and 16 percent of whites while Mr. Dunkley picks up 93 percent approval ratings from whites while 48 percent of blacks are favourable.

Younger people are slightly more likely to give a favourable rating for Dr. Brown than older people while the over 50s are more enthused about Mr. Dunkley than the under 50s.

The poll, which has a five percent margin of error, differs from a May poll done by Research Innovations Ltd which showed the PLP leading with 38.7 percent compared to the UBP’s 28.3 percent.

*The chances of an August 16 election are fading. The Opposition had claimed a leaked memo had shown this date had been earmarked by PLP strategists but its understood that with around five weeks needed for an election campaign and the Premier not due back to the island until later this week that time has run out for an August 16 poll.