Finance Minister Eugene Cox delivers his Budget estimates tomorrow - the last before the next general election.

But with significant pressures on revenue and millions of dollars expected to continue to be shelled out on capital projects and social programmes, Mr. Cox's budget may not be the painless sweetheart deal taxpayers got last year.

At the very least the budget is expected to bring increases in sin taxes - alcohol and tobacco, and maybe even increases in bus and ferry fares and vehicle licence fees as Mr. Cox takes a conservative view of economic performance in the near term.

But it is also expected that the Finance Minister to announce some progress toward establishing an unemployment insurance programme for all working Bermudians.

On the spending side, Government is expected to pull out all the stops on the senior secondary school at Berkeley, its most significant capital project, in an effort to bring the project in on schedule.

And the new Hamilton Police station and courts complex, in the works for years, may well get a significant chunk of its multi-millon projected cost.

Government may also decide to pump some money into healthcare - financial problems at King Edward VII Memorial hospital may force yet higher subsidies and an upward revision of fees. Plans for the new St. George's Parish rest home should be in full gear during the coming fiscal year also.

But measures taken by the Health Ministry to revamp the reimbursement system for health care providers could offset such increases with millions of dollars in savings as Mr. Cox stated last year.

Tourism, which had begun to show some signs of recovery in 2001 until the terror attacks on the United States would, under normal circumstances, be expected to be treated with cautious optimism in this year's budget. But with the prospect of war in the Middle East and possible retributive attacks on the United States, the Finance Minister may well hedge his bets on the short term economic outlook.

Charles Gosling, president of the Chamber of Commerce, admitted to having some degree of empathy with Mr. Cox.

"I would have been very reluctant to put last year's budget let alone this year. At the same time he has one hell of an escape clause," he said.

Much of last year's planned borrowing of up to $75 million for capital projects will have been deferred to this year.

And it's anyone's guess how much of a buffer will be provided by the end of year current account surplus - revenue from tourism during the last year is expected to have been flat throughout the year, but that may have been offset by the growth in international business.

Government's approach to budgeting has yielded a steadily declining surplus and last year expected it to come in at a mere $23 million after interest payments on the debt.

At the end of the previous financial year (2001/02) there was just over $42 million left in Government coffers, some $15 million less than the original estimate.

Tax revenues will also have been affected by a full year's worth of payroll tax concessions to retailers, customs duty and other relief given to the hospitality industry as well as a drastic reduction in Land Tax payable for homes in the higher annual rental value brackets.

While last year's budget may have been characterised by no new taxes and, in some cases, lower taxes, it's difficult to see how taxpayers can be spared this time around.

Mr.Gosling said that any concessions given to business will likely cost the Government very little.

Retailers have been pushing for similar concessions granted to hospitality for refurbishing their premises and the opportunity to trade on Sundays and public holidays without cost or restrictions.

"That is something which will send a good message to the community in terms of increased earnings. It would also send a good message to tourists that we are serious when we ask them to come down and share with us our wonderful Island on these occasions," he said. "There are also going to be a large number of cruise ship visits over the weekend and I think for Bermuda to benefit from these benefits then we do need to offer them shopping opportunities on Sunday."

Given no war-related upheaval to the tourism industry, the number of weekend cruise ships should triple this year.

Mr. Gosling agreed that tourism's outlook depended on how the Iraq crisis plays out. "The whole situation in Iraq is going to be a huge black cloud lying over the Island."

Tax concessions to retailers for upgrading their premises may lessen Government income but won't amount to increased spending, he argued, saying that the investments would likely not be made without the concessions.

Increased competition among retailers has meant less money to reinvest, the argument goes.

"What used to be a spring sale or a Boxing Day sale is now taking place on a monthly basis," Mr. Gosling said.

"He's always been open to our discussions," he added when asked if he felt that the Finance Minister would yield to the pressure.

"He's like a Bhudda - he's expressionless. But he leaves you feeling very warm and that you have been listened to. I would also say he has listened in the past and he has acted accordingly."