Budget 2004/2005, the first to be produced by Alex Scott's administration, is an unknown quantity in the business world, and other quarters. But there is some trepidation among business that it may contain a bitter pill.

It will be the Progressive Labour Party's (PLP) sixth budget, and new Finance Minister Paula Cox's first, since coming into power in 1998.

Despite heavy spending on education, health and social services, over the years, the PLP has in recent years come under criticism for not being focused enough on social issues.

That may change ? Premier Alex Scott's stressed in a recent speech to the Rotary Club that his administration will place a renewed emphasis on social issues.

Business is showing some signs of nervousness.

According to Chamber of Commerce president Charles Gosling, Ms Cox had a meeting with various organisations soon after becoming Finance Minister ? probably, he suspects, to prepare them not to raise their hopes.

"No other incoming Minister has done anything like that. But I think she wanted to lower people's expectations. There certainly was an insinuation that there was going to be a little bit of a sting in the tail."

Business has been demanding duty relief for the retailers who spruce up their premises ? a concessions act similar to that given to hotels and restaurants, and there has been a movement for allowing more retailers to open on Sundays. But Mr. Gosling doubts if any of those initiatives are on the cards in this Budget.

"Around St. George's and Dockyard retail needs brushing up and assistance in helping us do that redevelopment would be good," he said. We are certainly aware that timing is essential ? there has been a very vigorous construction boom going on and we needn't inflate that any further."

Sunday openings have been discussed again too, but the proposal was "not as well received as from her father".

"I think there is a certain concern that despite the Employment Act that the first PLP government put through that there are still employers out there which will take advantage of their workforce. The bad habits of a few are affecting the ability of good employers, and a lot of employees who would like to have an additional salary, have to go without."

Mr. Gosling said that his sense was that the upcoming Budget would be another "bridging budget".

"I think you had a very good and very careful Minister of Finance who decided that he will do nothing that will interfere with the wellbeing of the country."

International business is hoping that Ms Cox will follow her father's approach of not rocking the boat.

"Our hope is as usual no surprises, no major changes," said David Ezekiel, chairman of the Association of Bermuda International Companies.

"We certainly like on a global basis to see a containment of costs on the part of Government. That's something we all look for. But it's difficult to make a prediction. International business has grown and is providing an increase in revenue to government already."

The "wild card" he agreed, was what net impact the Fabian clean-up and repair bill would have on the Budget.

"But hopefully we'll get no major surprises and some assurance on cost containment."

In addition to Fabian-related spending such as replacing or rebuilding the Causeway, shoring up the South Shore and repairing Government buildings, capital projects still requiring completion include the new senior school at Berkeley, a new Hamilton Police station and courts complex, and the National Sports Center.

But the public would also be expecting more spending on housing and seniors' projects ? in particular the new St. George's Rest home.

"Sin taxes" ? on liquor and cigarettes ? which have only been increased once by the PLP, would be an easy target if Government was looking for a way to increase revenues to accommodate extra spending.

"As a supplier of liquor it wouldn't surprise me," Mr. Gosling said. "The thing which is a little bit worrying in that respect is that Bermuda being a mid-Atlantic tourist destination, we are certainly hit by the low dollar and the British and European goods are coming in at a considerable additional cost."

A major "social issues" project that Government initiated with $1 million seed money two years ago is an Unemployment Insurance Scheme. The programme was meant to be hashed out over a twelve-month period, and was fully expected to be in place before last summer's General Election.

This week, no-one ? not even labour leader Derrick Burgess could say whether there was even an off chance that any progress towards the scheme would be announced in the Budget.

"We've not been advised of any potential matters to be included in the Budget, we've not been asked to comment on the ideas and we've had no discussion on the Unemployment Insurance Scheme," said Bermuda International Business Association chairman Gregory Haycock.

But he joined others in the business community in hoping that the Budget did nothing to increase the cost of doing business here.

"We are aware that the number of new incorporations are down for this year compared to the previous years and our sources of information indicate that other jurisdictions are much more competitive in their attempts to attract business from Bermuda," Mr. Haycock said.

"I would simply say it's critical to ensure that the climate for doing business here for international business is good and I would simply state that the cost of doing business onshore generally is higher because of the regulatory issues."