66% against Independence
A poll of Bermudians taken just days before the release of the Bermuda Independence Commission?s report found that a large percentage are not only against Independence, but if they had to decide, they would want to do so by referendum.
These were the principal findings of the Research Innovations telephone poll of 403 people between September 6 and 11 ? before the BIC Report was released on September 15.
According to the poll, 66.9 percent of those who participated in the poll opposed the idea of national independence, while 18.7 percent supported it ? with 14.4 percent remaining undecided.
The poll found that 52.2 percent of the black population opposed independence, compared to the 26.3 percent who did. Some 89.8 percent of the whites participating in the poll were opposed to independence with only 4.7 percent supporting it.
The mixed group (black and white) accounted for 80.8 percent opposing the idea and 15.4 supporting it, while Asians were split at 60 percent opposed to the idea of independence and 40 percent for.
?Other? race groups voted 77.8 percent against and 22.2 percent for independence.
Bermuda?s younger generation were also more opposed to the idea of independence than the older generation.
In the 18 to 35 age group 70.3 percent were opposed to independence, while only 14.4 percent supported the idea. In the 36 to 54 age group, 62 percent opposed independence, while 22.4 percent supported it and 69.4 percent of the 55 and older generation opposed the idea with 18.2 percent supporting it.
There was also a large divide in the income groups with 75.9 percent of those earning below $50,000 opposing independence and 14.1 percent supporting the idea compared to the 57.7 percent opposed to the idea In the $50,000 to $100,000 bracket with 23.4 percent supporting it.
On the other end of the spectrum, those earning over $100,000 account for 72 percent opposing independence and 18.6 supporting it.
The last eleven months have shown an interesting trend as far as independence is concerned with relatively little variation in those opposed to the idea.
November last year saw 61 percent of those participating in the poll opposed to independence, which gained five percent by January ? and this figure remained static until July when it dropped by one percent to 64 percent against. The 2.9 percent increase in those opposed to independence were recorded at a time when BIC was holding public meetings across the Island, with the highest recorded in September at 66.9 percent opposed.
As for those supporting the idea of independence, the figure has varied more ? starting at 21 percent in November and then dropping to 19 percent in January and 16 percent in March.
The figure jumped to 20 percent in support of independence in May, with a further increase of eight percent in July ? during the time when BIC held public meetings across the Island, but then dropped to 18.7 percent in the poll taken between September 6 to 11.
As to the method of deciding on independence, the poll found that 64.7 percent wanted a referendum while 25.1 percent preferred a general election. Only ten percent were undecided.
This figure has also varied over the past eleven months with the highest percentage in favour of a referendum recorded in May at 72 percent with a 38 percent high in favour of a general election recorded in July.
Without a doubt, those wanting a referendum to decide on independence still outnumbered those wanting a general election.
In November 2004, 60 percent of those participating in a telephone poll supported the idea of a referendum, while 20 percent chose a general election.
January saw this figure climb with 69 percent wanting a referendum and 21 wanting a general election.
But these figure dropped in March when 66 percent were for a referendum and 19 for a general election.
In May those wanting a referendum increased by six percent to 72 percent, compared to the 18 percent who were for a general election.
Those wanting a referendum dropped severely in July to 54 percent, while the number of those wanting a general election increased by 20 percent to 38 percent.
Broken down into sex, age and race, 65.6 percent of men and 63.9 percent of women wanted a referendum, compared to the 27.4 percent of men and 23.8 of women were for a general election.
When it comes to the age breakdown, 65.3 percent in the 18 to 35 age group wanted a referendum, compared to the 27.1 percent who wanted to decide by general election.
Of the 36 to 54 year olds who participated in the poll, 67.7 percent wanted a referendum compared to 23 percent and in the 55 and older age group, 61.2 percent supported the idea of a referendum and 25.6 wanted to decide by election.