Since the advent of full party politics in 1968, voters have only once elected an Independent candidate to the House of Assembly.

That was largely because the Westminster system and the dynamics of party politics minimised their chances of success, especially under the old dual seat electoral system.

But there is a growing sense that with electoral reform, and the end of the Progressive Labour Party's first term as government, independent candidates may now have their best chance in decades to win seats in the House of Assembly.

Smaller single seat constituencies under the new electoral system make campaigning easier for Independents. At the same time, they would no longer need to persuade voters to split their votes - while removing a party candidate's ability to get their running mate elected on their coat-tails.

And there is the perception that the political parties' policies are not that different from each other and the electorate would welcome a real choice.

The United Bermuda Party's platform is "remarkably similar to the PLP's platform of the last election", said children's advocate Sheelagh Cooper. "And I'm sure that there are people who wonder how realistic it is to expect them to do something which has taken them 30 years (to adopt)."

Recent poll results suggested that as much as 44 percent of the electorate were undecided or would not state their voting intentions while another five percent would vote for the National Liberal Party or an Independent candidate. Previous polls put that figure at close to zero percent.

In addition, a relatively large number of PLP voters are reportedly disillusioned but rather than vote for the Opposition, are planning to stay home.

The fact that falling support in the polls for the PLP has not translated into rising support for the UBP seems to support that view.

"These are mainly PLP supporters who under no conditions are prepared to vote UBP," former National Liberal Party (NLP) chairman Charles Jeffers speculated. "This might open the door for independent candidates who are sympathetic to the PLP."

Mr. Jeffers believes single seat constituencies will favour independent candidates.

"No longer will an independent candidate have to convince voters to support him or her along with a candidate from another party."

Not so, says Government Sen. Calvin Smith.

"Their chances of getting elected are a snowball in hell," he said, adding that swing voters are not "strongly political" as generally believed.

"They're not stupid, but they're just not political - they're not going to join any damn political party and their vote is always up for grabs."

Of the six pundits contacted this week, Sen. Smith is unique in his attitude, but even he is not entirely dismissive of independent candidates.

He believes he would probably be an MPtoday had it not been for the spoiler votes that went to NLP candidate Debra Saltus during the 1993 election in Warwick East.

Patricia Gordon-Pamplin ran as an independent but Sen. Smith, who came a close third with 854 votes behind Alex Scott (894) and Irving Pearman (897), believes that Ms Saltus' 154 votes would have otherwise gone to a PLP candidate.

The advent of single seats has had an impact which political parties may as yet not be fully aware of, said Sen. Smith, because the individual has become much more important.

"The key thing isn't so much a role for independents but a role for individuals."

But an independent minded person is better off within a party structure and parties would be smart to let them be and not try to constrain their independence too much, he said.

PLP backbencher Dale Butler and the UBP's Trevor Moniz come up frequently in discussions about independently minded candidates who have managed to survive within the party structure.

But those who support a movement of independents now say that party discipline deprives the electorate of meaningful and honest debate on issues they care about.

"Under our present system, whether you favour what the party is doing or not, unless you are a maverick, very few people are going to vote on an issue that's brought up by the other side" regardless of the merits, said Mr. Jeffers. "A good independent candidate can be a voice of reason who votes on the issues rather than party. An independent candidate will be directly responsible to the people."

Mr. Spanswick is the first to have gone on the record with the idea of forming an alliance of independents. At least two other groups have been canvassing the idea but none would go on the record.

Stuart Hayward, who was an Independent MP from 1989 until 1998, finds the idea intriguing and says that a coalition would work best if the candidates agreed on core values.

"It's a system that works around majorities, so you need to be moving in the direction where you had the number of votes to make arguments," he said.

Such a coalition would not amount to another political party because there would be no whip and no strictly enforced party line, he said. Independents can change the dynamic of polarisation along party lines forever, if the task is approached properly, Mr. Hayward continued.

"There's going to have to be incremental change and those changes are going to have to be spearheaded by people with an independent spirit - people who recognise that change is needed but that change must be deliberate, not catastrophic."

Others see the coalition concept as a way of sharing scarce resources. Candidates with nothing in common besides their independence would share an office and other facilities to lessen the cost of campaigning against party machines.

Mr. Jeffers, a former leader of the NLP, says the idea of a well oiled party machinery is a myth.

"The PLP has talked about a struggle to get people out - to form branches - and they are the government," he said. "There are very few dedicated workers. So the so called party machinery is party propaganda. It (campaigning) will be no harder for an independent than it would be for a party candidate."

"Bermuda is a small enough place to really benefit from direct relationships between politicians and their constituents," said Mrs. Cooper.

Voters would be better represented, debate would improve and if a handful of independents actually get elected, they would hold the balance of power and force a more consensual form of decision making, she said.

She stressed that she was not interested in running for elective office and had no particular leanings toward either political party, and she would not confirm or deny reports that she is behind plans to organise a coalition of independents.

"Charles Spanswick is an example of someone who would not be on top of my list but there's room for a wide range of views here. That's what democracy is all about," Mrs. Cooper said. "This place is too small and too in trouble to be spending our time battling each other."