The director of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution will be discussing the possibility of a new ice age taking place this century in his talk at the Bermuda Underwater Exploration Institute tonight.

Dr. Robert Gagosian was appointed director of the institution in 1994 and his research ? largely on marine geochemistry of biologically produced organic compounds with emphasis on transport processes ? has resulted in more than 85 scientific papers. The institution is a private, non-profit facility dedicated to the study of marine science and to the education of marine scientists and is the largest independent oceanographic institution in the world.

In an interview with yesterday, Dr. Gagosian said global warming would be the catalyst to the next ice age and this is what he will be discussing at the presentation. He said global warming would ultimately cause countries in the northern part of the hemisphere to gradually become colder and with 60 percent of the economy of the world lying in the North Atlantic, especially Europe, this would be catastrophic.

Dr. Gagosian, an accomplished marine organic geochemist, explained that the ocean is like a conveyor belt and has to keep moving.

He said the water at the surface is salty, denser and cold and thus sinks and as this water moved around the globe it ultimately effected the weather.

?If you add a lot of fresh water to the North Atlantic from the melting ice caps, or from the rains that come from the tropics and moved up north through the atmosphere, too much fresh water will dilute the salt water and ultimately cause it not to sink,? he said.

?So the Gulf Stream, which now goes northeast, will now go southeast because it?s backing up due to the change in density. All the heat that the Gulf Stream transports to Europe and North America and Bermuda will not get there and it will get colder.?

The last time this happened was between 1350 and 1850 in what he described as ?the mini-ice age?.

?The Thames in London and canals in the Netherlands froze over. That?s never happened since,? he said.

Dr. Gagosian said this ?mini-ice age? caused up to a million people to immigrate and should this happen today, the consequences would be catastrophic.

?Should millions of people need to move now, where would they go??

As far as a country like Bermuda is concerned this increase in colder weather would ultimately affect tourism, but also transportation to and from the Island with respect to weather conditions, oil prices would go up as more fuel is used in colder countries and ultimately agriculture will be affected.

Tickets are still available for tonight?s presentation which is being hosted jointly by BUEI and the Bermuda Aquarium, Museum and Zoo.