The 11 rebel PLP MPs are playing "high stakes political poker" in their bid to force Premier Jennifer Smith to step down, according to constitutional expert Tim Marshall.

Under the Bermuda Constitution, Governor Sir John Vereker must select as Premier the member of the House of Assembly who commands the support of the majority of members - i.e. at least 19.

With 11 of the 22 new PLP members in a stand-off with Ms Smith and refusing to serve in her Cabinet, it is clear she does not command a majority of the 36 MPs.

In this tricky constitutional quandary, the PLP's rules are at odds with the Constitution of Bermuda.

Ordinary members of the PLP select the leader of the party, but it is for MPs only to chose who will be Premier.

The dissident PLP MPs have been demanding the right to meet with Ms Smith to choose who they, as majority party, want as Premier.

In effect, they are saying that regardless of the PLP's rule books, they want to go by the Constitution and choose whoever they want as Premier.

If Ms Smith remains party leader and shows no sign of bowing to pressure from her own MPs, it could fall to the Governor, under section 59 (2) of the Constitution, to revoke her title as Premier.

And if the MPs cannot horse trade to come up with another candidate whom the Governor is convinced is supported by at least 19 MPs, he can call for another election.

Mr. Marshall told The Royal Gazette yesterday: "This is high stakes political poker and the Premier is gambling that the party membership, if it goes in her favour, will create an insurmountable political barrier which stops the 11 from challenging her premiership.

"The Premier is gambling the 11 will never engage the Opposition to seek discussions and there is no guarantee the Opposition will support such a move. And the Opposition might well be happy to leave the PLP in a constant state of turmoil.

"I don't believe the Governor will intervene lightly. I believe he will leave it to the PLP to sort it out themselves. If the will of the party goes in favour of the Premier, it is going to make it very difficult for the 11 to oust her, unless they are prepared to cross the floor of the House and do a deal with the UBP. It could be great fodder for political manoeuvring for the UBP. They could support the 11 in return for concessions on something they hold dear, such as work permit limits.

"She remains as Premier until such time as it becomes apparent she does not command the support of the majority of the House. In practice, the Governor gives a reasonable opportunity for the majority party to sort out its internal affairs and to resolve who commands the majority before the Governor intervenes."

Deputy Governor Nick Carter confirmed yesterday that the Premier remains Premier for the time being, as do Ministers who have already been sworn in. When asked if the Governor believed Ms Smith commands the support of the majority of MPs in the House, Mr Carter said yesterday: "No comment. We wait to see what happens tonight with everyone else. The Premier remains the Premier until the Governor decides otherwise. Ministers remain Ministers, which is up to the Premier." But Mr. Carter, who took up his post at the beginning of the month, admitted: "As Deputy Governor, I am on a steep learning curve."