In 2003 PLP MPs were split down the middle when eleven rebels rose up to oust Jennifer Smith. How have things changed in the parliamentary party? Here the Royal Gazette estimates how the votes might fall this time around.

BROWN CAMP

Nelson Bascome: A Brown supporter last time. Sacked from Cabinet by Alex Scott, Mr. Bascome has publicly complained about being left out in the cold so he could see Brown as his best chance of getting back in power.

Derrick Burgess: A key player in the Brown camp who was brought into Cabinet to balance the ticket when likeminded Terry Lister left he will stick with his pals.

Randy Horton: Another rebel who split from Smith to join the Brown wing, Randy Horton could be keen to avenge his recent demotion from Home Affairs to Environment by ousting Alex Scott

Dennis Lister: Removed from Cabinet by Alex Scott, Dennis Lister could see a Brown victory as his ticket back to the big time though some doubt he wants to return.

Wayne Perinchief: A major Brown ally last time he will hope for a promotion if the Doctor pulls it off.

George Scott: Has publicly backed Brown so could move nearer Cabinet if things change at the top.

Ottiwell Simmons: Will keep his cards close to his chest but thought to favour a Brown bid, having been part of the splitters of 2003.

SCOTT CAMP

David Burch: The ultimate Jennifer Smith loyalist who was brought back into the Cabinet by Alex Scott, Senator Burch will likely want to scupper Dr. Brown even though the two have a similar blunt, results-orientated approach to their work.

Neletha Butterfield: Recently promoted to the Education post she has long hankered for Neletha Butterfield stands to gain nothing from a change in leadership.

Paula Cox: By nature a loyalist she will stick with Mr. Scott over Dr. Brown. But she may well be persuaded to go for the leadership herself and blow the whole thing wide open.

Walter Lister: One of the rebel eleven last time he has finally been given full-time Cabinet status after two years as Minister Without Portfolio so he could well now see his fortunes tied to that of his new boss.

Stanley Lowe: In the twilight of his political career he will want the status quo maintained.

Patrice Minors: Promoted to a major ministry under Alex Scott, the Health Minister could perish under a Brown win, even though she has reason to be angry with Mr. Scott who has cast doubt on her decision to put the new hospital on Botanical Gardens land.

Larry Mussenden: In a job he clearly loves, it is difficult to see what Attorney General Larry Mussenden would gain from a changing of the guard.

Walter Roban: Part of the party hierarchy, he will want Mr. Scott to remain in situ.

Michael Scott: Promoted by Mr. Scott the Telecommunications Minister could be vulnerable if the leadership changes hands and Brown supporters are reward with posts.

Jennifer Smith: Ousted by Dr. Brown's group Ms Smith would like nothing better than to stop her nemesis getting the Premiership. However she could be a key figure in pushing forward an alternative Paula Cox challenge.

Raymond Tannock: A straightforward Scott man.

Neville Tyrell: Seen as a peacemaker Senator Tyrell will want to stick with the current set-up.

TOO DIFFICULT TO CALL

Glenn Blakeney: Is sitting on the fence but has dropped clear hints he would like Paula Cox to run.

Dale Butler: Part of the Brown faction which ousted Jennifer Smith, Mr. Butler was given his first taste of Cabinet life under Mr. Scott so could suffer divided loyalties.

Ashfield DeVent: A staunch loyalist last time around it's thought the man Alex Scott hired and then fired from the Works and Engineering Ministry has a genuinely open mind on the issue. Could help the push for a Paula Cox bid.

Dean Foggo: Caught off guard by 2003's post poll machinations, Mr. Foggo is likely to make a decision nearer the time.

Terry Lister: Now taking a backseat Terry Lister has done virtually every Cabinet job so has little to gain either way. But he could fancy himself as kingmaker or even deputy leader. However the elevation of his uncle Walter to full cabinet rank could keep him loyal to Mr. Scott.

Renee Webb: One of the few MPs to go on record with her dissatisfaction with both incumbent Alex Scott and likely challenger Ewart Brown, she is hoping a contest will open up the field for a Paula Cox Premiership.