A tropical storm researcher has predicted that Atlantic coastal areas can expect twice as many hurricanes as normal during the 2003 season.

Colorado State University tropical storm researcher William Gray and his team had forecast above average Atlantic basin hurricane activity this year.

"A wide variety of global indicators obtained and analysed through March continue to point to 2003 being an active Atlantic hurricane season," said Mr. Gray, who is in his 20th year of hurricane forecasting.

"We expect Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity to be about 140 percent of average this year."

The forecast has predicted that 12-named tropical storms will form in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and November 30.

Eight are predicted to become hurricanes and three are anticipated to evolve into intense hurricanes, with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

The long-term average is 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

Last year, there were 12 named-storms, in which only four reached hurricane status and two were classed as intense hurricanes.

Mr. Gray and his team believed that the El Nino in the Pacific, which played a role in suppressing 2002 hurricane activity, is weakening and will be largely dissipated by summer.

The team also maintained their warning for higher than average probability of at least one intense hurricane making landfall in the United States this year, citing a 68 percent chance of a major hurricane hitting somewhere along the US coastline.

"The United States has been extremely lucky over the past few decades, but climatology will eventually right itself and we must expect a great increase in land-falling intense hurricanes," said Mr. Gray.

"With such a large coastal population growth in recent decades, it is inevitable that we will see hurricane-spawned destruction in the coming years on a scale many times greater than what we have seen in the past."

The team will issue seasonal forecast updates on May 30, August 7 and September 3.