Despite a dire warning on Monday that four to six major hurricanes are likely this year, the Bermuda Biological Station for Research (BBSR) says more storms do not mean Bermuda will be affected.

On Monday, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) said June 1 would bring a very active hurricane season with 13 to 16 named storms, eight to ten hurricanes and four to six hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

On average, the north Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.

In 2005, the Atlantic hurricane season contained a record 28 storms, including 15 hurricanes. Seven of these hurricanes were considered ?major?.

?Whether there are a lot or a few is not so much the issue,? BBSR Director Dr. Tony Knap said on Tuesday. ?Remember Andrew was the first of 1992 and not many others followed.

?The problem is that it was very strong and hit a very well populated area with moderate wealth. So the issue is will they hit land and will they be more powerful??

Dr. Knap admitted hurricanes were getting stronger and lasting longer, but work conducted by BBSR after Hurricane Emily, showed storms can only mix water, and gain heat from, seawater up to about 100 metres deep.

?Although seawater temperatures are generally increasing the main increase off Bermuda is at 300 metres in depth so this added heat would not be available for hurricanes,? he said.

The other issue in Bermuda?s favour is that the North Atlantic Oscillation can increase the strength of the Bermuda High, forcing steering currents west and east of Bermuda, he said.

?Also, Bermuda is a small footprint so by chance a direct hit less likely,? he said. ?However, we are dealing with the vagaries of nature and although you cannot really predict specifics (what and when) to any great degree, you should assume the worst and be prepared and follow the guidance of the Emergency Measures Organisation.?

Bermuda Weather Service Director Dr. Mark Guishard admitted that it only took one hurricane hitting where you live to make it a bad season, but he repeated Dr. Knap?s call not to panic.

?In fact the steering currents and atmospheric conditions which increase the risk of landfall in the US and Caribbean may even imply a diminished risk for Bermuda,? Dr. Guishard said on Tuesday.

He said this did not take into account the development of subtropical storms in the north-west Atlantic, which tended to cause concern at least once a year.

The public are advised to monitor tropical updates on the Bermuda Weather Service website ? www.weather.bm ? which also contains a link to the US National Hurricane Centre.