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Opinions split over timing of election

PLP candidate Walton Brown

Backed into a corner – or a bold move to launch his party into another five years of power? Opinion is divided over what lay behind Premier Ewart Brown's decision to call a December 18 election.

The announcement came on Friday via a video clip on the PLP website which the media were then alerted to.

The recording made no reference to the Throne Speech which had occurred just hours earlier, nor did it actually give the date of the poll. Those factors have sparked speculation it could have been recorded long in advance.

The Premier followed it up with a broadside against the "morally bankrupt" United Bermuda Party and attacks on the media in his address to party stalwarts on Saturday night in which spoke of "gigantic smear campaigns", "vigilantes", "witch-hunts" and "demented deviants".

Assessing what had been behind the decision for a pre-Christmas poll, PLP candidate Walton Brown said: "I believe the Premier had that date in mind for some time.

"I think there was a great deal of momentum seen in the earlier part of this year with candidate selection taking place.

"He wanted to be assured that all candidates themselves were prepared for the election. He wanted to ensure they were all out canvassing."

All the signs had been pointing to a summer election but Mr. Brown said canvassing properly was an enormous task as encounters with voters could last anything from five minutes to two hours.

One PLP MP, speaking on conditions of anonymity, said the timing had allowed Government to lay out some of its agenda via the Throne speech while denying the Opposition the chance to put out its reply a week later because Parliament had been dissolved.

And of the startlingly blunt rally speech the MP said: "That's the best speech he has ever given. I am glad I am not having to respond to that.

"It really lays out why the UBP isn't really fit to be Government. It is like what he said at the Pembroke West rally – they don't understand us so they cannot govern us.

"I think that speech will motivate people who might be on the fence, people who were leaning to the PLP."

But Opposition Leader Michael Dunkley believes Dr. Brown had called an election on the spur of the moment to stave off a revolt in his own party which threatened his leadership.

"He was backed into a corner. Why go through all this charade of a Throne Speech and then call an election? That (Throne) Speech wasn't even appealing to the voter. It was the same old, same old."

But one PLP source said Dr. Brown had chosen to go to the Country now to show he had no fear of what the media might still have to reveal.

"It's his personality. He would not want to anyone to think the press or anyone could frighten him or have any control over him."

Admitting unhappiness within the party about Dr. Brown's leadership, the insider said there was no obvious successor other than Paula Cox who lacked the charisma for the top job.

The source said the party was sceptical of Dr. Brown but gambled that he would rein in his behaviour after recent warning shots.

And if Dr. Brown was to be forced out, the PLP would lose one of its leading lights as he had pledged to retire from politics if he could not be leader.

"His absence would be significant. It's very difficult. People are very much at a loss."

Political pundit Tom Vesey said the high-tech method of calling the election was "pretty weird" as most people would find out about the election via the news media anyway.

Normally a press conference is held after the visit to the Governor.

Mr. Vesey said he assumed the election call was for a number of reasons including the need to get on with it before Dr. Brown was "too badly attacked by his own colleagues", as well as a a feel-good factor after the PGA and music festival successes.

"Calling an election is such a gut thing. It could be he had such a good time in China. Who the hell knows? It's a gamble. You feel lucky or you don't feel lucky."

And being on an election footing without actually going for it also becomes "wearisome" after too long, said Mr. Vesey before you had a "whole pile of restless people causing trouble".

The weekend saw Dr. Brown launch another stinging attack on the UBP and the media.

Mr. Vesey said: "I think it was nasty. It was probably very good as a pep talk for people already firmly in his camp.

"But most people don't hate the UBP the way he does, even most PLP supporters. I think he was expressing a bitterness most people don't feel.

"I don't think it will go down well. I think most people, especially those likely to be swing voters, kind of realise that the PLP and UBP are made up of the good, the bad and the indifferent.

"They won't believe any complicated conspiracy theories.

"It is interesting to think whether that is what he really believes or is it just a political speech he thinks will work. If that is what he really believes then it is scary."