A poll produced by the Progressive Labour Party shows it could be on course for its third straight election win as it now commands 45.5 percent of support compared to 37.7 percent for the United Bermuda Party.The Research Innovations survey, done from October 26-29, saw a reduction in the number of undecideds as the election gets nearer with just 16.2 failing to express a preference.Pollster Walton Brown said the survey had been done under similar procedures as polls he produced for The Royal Gazette before that arrangement was stopped after he became an election candidate for the Progressive Labour Party.However United Bermuda Party chairman Shawn Crockwell said last night: "We would be shocked if any poll result put out by the PLP, paid for by the PLP and conducted by a PLP candidate did not show the PLP ahead. "You have to assume any numbers put out with those connections are self-serving. We don't believe them."This is just propaganda to shore up Ewart Brown's tenuous position. Our information shows otherwise."The gender gap is evident in party preferences with 51.2 percent of men backing the PLP compared to 36.9 percent for the UBPand 11.9 percent not saying.Meanwhile 41 percent of women back the UBP compared to 37.6 percent backing the PLPand 18.5 percent not saying.The middle aged are most heavily pro-Government with 55.4 percent in the PLP camp compared to just 26.8 percent backing the Opposition. Those in the 18-35 age bracket back the UBP over the PLP by 48.5 percent to 45.5 percent.And the UBP have the lion's share of the over-55 vote with 48 percent compared to 30.7 percent for the PLP.There are some interesting insights when it comes to social class. The PLP has a narrow lead over the UBP for those with a household income of under $50,000 ¿ 38.5 percent are PLPcompared to 35.9 percent UBP.And in the $50-100,000 income bracket the PLPget 45.3 percent compared to 42.2 percent of the UBP.But in the more than $100,000 age bracket the PLPpull significantly ahead with 48.3 percent of the vote compared to 36.7 percent for the UBP.Premier Ewart Brown's favourability ratings stand at 46.1 percent with 42.1 percent unfavourable and 11.5 percent not sure while Opposition leader Michael Dunkley's approval rating stand at 39.6 percent compared to 36.6 percent who are unfavourable and 23.8 percent not sure.Men are more likely to be favourable to Premier Brown with 58.5 percent for and 31.9 percent against while women are 35.5 percent in favour and 51.2 percent against.Michael Dunkley also scores better with men than women - 42.6 percent of men are in favour and 35.1 percent against while women are evenly balanced at 37 percent for and 37.9 percent against.The under 55s are more likely to give a favourable rating to Ewart Brown than the over 55s. Those in the 18.35 age group are 3:1 in favour of the Premier while 50 percent of the over 55s are unfavourable and 37.5 percent favourable.Young people are evenly split when it comes to Michael Dunkley with 35.1 percent in approval and the same figure registering disapproval.In the 36-54 age group Mr. Dunkley's approval ratings falls to 29.1 percent while 49.7 percent are not in favour but in the over-55 age group 52.5 percent are in favour and 23.8 percent not in favour.What part race plays in voting intentions has not been revealed in the poll. Mr. Brown said there had been a lot of discussion about the racial issue which a not been "very productive" and he didn't want to encourage name calling. He said he was confident the PLPwould win again, not simply because of the survey, but because his party was in a good position across the constituencies.