Premier Jennifer Smith is refusing to comment on the bid last week by rebel MPs within her own party to oust her from office.

But political commentators last night described the Premier's position as “untenable” and said that Parliament may have to be dissolved if Ms Smith cannot show she has the support of the majority of MPs.

The Royal Gazette revealed on Saturday that Ms Smith clung to office after Government MPs voted 9-9 - with the Premier using her own vote - on a motion calling for her to stand down on Thursday night.

The disgruntled MPs called the vote at the end of a special meeting in Sessions House after Ms Smith turned down a request from backbench MPs that she resign because her leadership was discrediting the Progressive Labour Party (PLP) and claims that she had failed to achieve many of her goals.

Political analysts Walton Brown Jr. and Rolf Commissiong yesterday predicted that the disaffected MPs will continue their efforts to kick Ms Smith out as Premier.

But Smith loyalist Delaey Robinson said the Premier would command the support of the majority of the parliamentary party if the six MPs who missed the vote, and Government senators, had been there.

Mr. Brown said the Governor Sir John Vereker may have to dissolve Parliament and call an election if it is not clear which MP commands the support of the majority of the House of Assembly.

Under the constitution, the Governor appoints as Premier the person he is convinced is supported by the majority of MPs.

Mr. Brown said that even if the majority of PLP MPs - 14 - vote for Ms Smith to stand down, the Governor may not be convinced they represent the majority of MPs if Ms Smith's supporters do not back her replacement.

This would result in Parliament being split into three camps - pro-Smith supporters, anti-Smith PLP MPs, and the Opposition United Bermuda Party.

Mr. Commissiong, a PLP supporter but strong critic of Ms Smith, said yesterday: “In the context of a western democracy, the Premier's position is untenable.”

“She has two options left. She can either resign voluntarily for her own good, and that of the party and the country.

“Failing that, I believe her colleagues will have no choice but to remove her as Premier. It's in their hands

“If she fails to resign, it can only indicate that that she is motivated more out of self-interest than the interest of the party and the people of Bermuda.

“The Opposition is not interested in seeing the Premier removed because they believe she is their best asset because she makes them more of a viable alternative than they have any right to be at this political juncture.

“I think the momentum is increasing for change in the PLP leadership and it is now quite apparent that we are at the end game of the issue of her leadership. It is very analogous to what happened to Maggie Thatcher (who was ousted by the Conservative Party).

“What the people want now is for us to put our own house in order. They are not abandoning the party, all they are saying is the presence of Ms Smith and those who surround her can't take us to the next level that is required.

“That's very encouraging and positive because they don't want to throw the baby out with the bath water.

“The Opposition feel Smith is an asset to them and I don't get a sense they they can benefit from the real issues that are driving this - the feeling that Bermudians continue to feel, even more so over the last couple of years, that they are somehow losing control of their country.

“There is also the effects of big money and the international business sector making them vulnerable and marginalised within their own country, and of course, the high cost of living.

“The UBP can't benefit from that because they are further to right than the current leadership of this country.”

When asked if he thought Ms Smith would survive until the election, he said: “In my opinion, it doesn't end here. We're into the end game, but I'm not prepared to go any further than that.”

He said the front-runners to replace Ms Smith were Transport Minister Dr. Ewart Brown, Works and Engineering Minister Alex Scott, Education Minister Paula Cox, former Environment Minister Arthur Hodgson, and backbencher Reginald Burrows.

Mr. Brown said: “Those people seeking a change have revealed their hand and I don't doubt they will continue to seek to bring about change at that level.

“There was a 9-9 vote and there were a number of people who were not there.

“It could create a very delicate situation for the Governor. If 14 of the 26 PLP MPs say they want someone else as Premier, the Governor needs to determine whether those 14 represent the majority opinion in the House.

“If there are polarised views in Parliament with one faction supporting person A, another supporting Jennifer Smith, and the UBP saying they support Grant Gibbons, who has the majority support in Parliament?

“The Governor may dissolve Parliament and call an election if there is hung Parliament and no discernible leader.

“It has happened in the British Commonwealth in Trinidad. It wouldn't be in the interests of PLP MPs to have an election other than when they decide.”

When asked if he thought Ms Smith would be out before the election, he said: “It's very hard to say. There is great political manoeuvring that takes place outside the public realm and there is a great deal of manoeuvring going on now.

“When Arthur Hodgson challenged, he believed he had marshalled his forces, but on the day he couldn't.”

Mr. Robinson yesterday described the story in Saturday's Royal Gazette as “misleading and inaccurate”.

He did not attend Thursday night's meeting because he did not think there was anything to worry about.

He added he did not know there would be a vote at the end of the meeting and said he would have gone if he had known there was to be a vote.

He said: “I didn't go. I knew there was going to be a meeting where the issue of leadership was going to be discussed but we were never informed that there would be a vote on the leadership.

“I didn't think there was anything to worry about. We've been down this road before but I would have been there had I known there was going to be a vote.”

He said he believed that if the missing PLP members and Government senators had been present, the Premier would have won the majority vote.

He said three of the MPs missing (himself, Arthur Pitcher, and Rev. Wilbur Lowe) were St. George's members like the Premier and they would have voted in favour of Ms Smith.

He said he had no hesitation in believing that absent Education Minister Paula Cox would also have stayed loyal to Ms Smith if she had remained until the end of the meeting.

He said: “It's clear by my count that she has the command of the majority of the elected MPs. Anyway you slice it, Jennifer Smith is the Premier and has the majority vote.

“If people had an axe to grind surely they would base it on performance rather than something airy fairy.”

He said he believed if there was to be a challenge, it should be done at PLP conference in November, which falls in line with the PLP's constitution.

The Royal Gazette e-mailed both the Premier and her Chief of Staff Col David Burch for comment, but did not receive replies.

Outside the meeting on Thursday night, Col. Burch said: “It's a regular meeting. What's the problem?”