Hoteliers yesterday revised their predictions for the current tourist season and now believe it will be the worst in decades after the latest official figures showed visitor arrivals are down on last year.

Department of Tourism figures released yesterday show that visitor numbers for the year to June are down 15 percent on 2000 at 207,673. Arrival numbers for June were down 16 percent on the same period last year at 62,564.

Bermuda Hotel Association President Billy Griffith said in April, when the first quarter figures were produced, that he predicted this year's arrival figures will not be worse than 2000, when they hit an all-time low.

But as yesterday's gloomy figures were released, Mr. Griffith said he now believed this summer season will be even worse than last year.

Mr. Griffith told The Royal Gazette the figures for July will also show a further decline on last year.

"It is a serious cause for concern, but I don't think we are terribly surprised at this point in time. There are going to be tough times ahead and we are not going to break any records," he said.

"When looking forward at the subsequent figures for June and July, we will not see a turnaround and will see the same erosion of business, and June for the year to date is down 15 percent.

"We are continuing working on several things to try to get as much business as we can. It is very definite and very apparent that what is happening in the United States with the slowdown in the economy, and also the United Kingdom, is affecting the business."

Air arrivals for the year to June are down 13 percent at 141,113, and with the loss of a sixth weekly cruise ship, cruise numbers are down 20 percent to 63,197.

The figures also show that, although there are fewer rooms available than last year due to hotels carrying out renovations, the percentage of the remaining rooms occupied is also down.

Occupancy levels for the year to June are 52.2 percent compared to 60.1 percent for the same time last year. Occupancy rates for June, at 79.6 percent, are also down from 86.9 percent last year.

Occupancy rates at small hotels are slightly up on the year to June at 70.3 percent, while cottage colonies are slightly down from 56 percent to 52.4 percent. But large hotels have been hit by a slump in group and convention bookings, with occupancy for the year to June down from 60.3 percent last year to 49.5 percent now.

Mr. Griffith added: "Last summer there were less rooms but higher occupancy rates. Now, the hotel rooms available are down, but the occupancy levels are also down, which tells you the market is even softer. It is worrying."

Air arrivals from the United States have plummeted 13 percent from the year to June to 108,618; Canada is down four percent at 15,450; the United Kingdom is off 21 percent at 10,973; and Europe is down 29 percent at 2,128.

Tourism Minister David Allen was off the Island yesterday and could not be contacted for comment.

But the commentary to the statistics offered by the Department of Tourism for the June statistics said: ''Though the economic slowdown in the US economy continues to adversely affect the travel industry, its effect on Bermuda is compounded by a 19 percent decline in the number of beds available in the second quarter.

''As the Island's hotels continue to undergo major renovation initiatives, the total number of visitors residing in the commercial properties declined by nine percent for the month, while for the year, that figure fell by 14 percent.''

The statement said weak European currencies made Bermuda an expensive destination, while Europe became cheaper for US travellers.