The PLP is planning a huge January fundraiser while the UBP are already running campaign adverts ? can an election be very far away? Matthew Taylor picks over some of the issues facing the Premier as he mulls over when to seek a fresh mandate.

Despite being Premier for less than six weeks Ewart Brown will now be weighing up the most important decision of his political career as he assesses when to take his party to the polls.

He must decide whether to cash in on the first flush of popularity or go the electorate after building up a solid record of achievement as Premier.

And for the UBP the stakes couldn?t be higher. A third consecutive defeat, however close, will lead to many questioning if the party is a viable electoral entity or a rump party doomed to forever sounding off in opposition. UBP strategists concede Dr. Brown?s elevation has tipped the balance 55/45 in favour of the PLP from an even race they expected under Alex Scott.

But confidence still remains high in Opposition circles. While Dr. Brown?s personal approval rating has hit 53.7 percent the Opposition points out both Dame Jennifer Smith and Alex Scott had enjoyed far higher ratings in the early months of their administrations, which could indicate a residual resentment to the new Premier.

One UBP insider said the vote, whenever it comes, had all the makings to be one of Bermuda?s most exciting elections. Last time if 75 people had switched their votes in six key seats the UBP would have been back in Government at the first attempt. ?I think the election is very much up for grabs. It will not be easy,? said one source.

Certainly something is in the air ? the fundraising has already started as can be seen by the Premier?s glitzy do, where tickets will go for up to $25,000 and last week Government Senator Wayne Caines admitted the party was ?in election mode?.

Former PLP MP and Senator Cal Smith said he had no idea of when Dr. Brown would go to the polls. ?I had a pretty good idea of how things were shaping up under Alex Scott ? I thought he would have gone as close as possible to the end of the term but Ewart is something different.

?He might want to take advantage of the big bounce when he got elected.?

The last poll by Research Innovations showed nearly 40 percent wanted the PLP again ? up nine percent on Alex Scott?s figures ? while 25 percent of those polled wanted the UBP.

But Mr. Smith added: ?I am not sure the party has all its people in place or whether Ewart Brown is satisfied with the people in place.

?He might want to take some time to talk to Cabinet and advisors about changes or additions as far as candidates go.?

An election must be called by the end of 2008 so the Premier still has time on his side.

Political pundit and pollster Walton Brown doubted there would be an early election despite Dr. Brown?s big lead.

?There is no compelling reason to have an election.?

Instead he believes the Premier would prefer to go to the polls with a bank of tangible results rather than cut and run early. ?Four years is a respectable time ? maybe summer or early fall.?

There is no usual time for an election, said Mr. Brown, who holds a Master?s degree in political science and who taught politics at Bermuda College.

Evidence from the elections since 1968 show four in the May to July period and six in the winter period. From 1980 onwards the UBP always called elections in the winter giving credence to the believe that summer polls favour the PLP, as students who are deemed more likely to vote PLP, are home.

However the only election the PLP has had a chance to call was in July 2003 when it scraped in, compared to the November 1998 poll when it trounced the UBP to get its first spell in power.

With Dr. Brown keen to court the youth vote as can be seen by his planned road trip to court undergraduates overseas, a summer poll seems more likely.

Indeed the last opinion poll shows Government was more popular with younger voters with 42.6 percent of the 18-35 year-olds favouring the PLP compared to 24.6 percent favouring the UBP. And the PLP beat the UBP by more than two to one in the 36-54 year-old age category.

With youth in mind backbench PLP MP Glenn Blakeney urged the Premier to pick an Easter election as students would be back from school and the February budget would be fresh in people?s minds.

Race is again likely to be big factor in determining voting trends. Only eight percent of blacks in the last poll said they would have voted UBP while a third of whites, traditionally the bedrock of UBP support, said they would not have voted for either party.

More than 70 percent of blacks went for the PLP ? up from 49 percent last time around ? while just under half the whites polled said they backed the Opposition.

Asked about the race factor a UBP insider said Dr. Brown?s spat with Grant Gibbons in which the term ?racist dog? had been used was the Premier ?speaking to his base? but the swing vote was still very much in play.

Asked if the next election would again get racial Walton Brown said: ?I hope not. If you look at the content of the PLP policies there is nothing racially divisive in the party platform.

?And there is nothing, if you look at the policies put into place, that are racially biased.?

But he said he would like to see a toning down of the racial rhetoric. ?When they are speaking MPs should recognise they are speaking for the entire country, not just one segment.?

Cal Smith said he thought it was the UBP who could use the race card by playing up the Brown/Gibbons row for its own ends.

Former Premier Sir John Swan, who led his party to four election wins, said Bermuda?s voters were becoming increasingly sophisticated, able to evaluate the parties on merit rather than emotion.

?They want to know what you have to offer. Are you going to carry through or is it business as usual or will progress be turned back??

Sir John characterised Ewart Brown as a ?doer? who would seize the moment to present his own agenda.

But Sir John declined to speculate when Dr. Brown who go to the polls. He described the moment of choosing as ?being damned if you do and damned if you don?t.?

Sir John predicted the election issues would be housing, social services and seniors.

On the issue of housing Cal Smith said Dr. Brown would want something substantial done on that before throwing himself to the mercy of the voters. ?I think housing will be well tackled by the time the election comes.?

One UBP insider said that despite the millions which will be lashed out on glitzy TV campaigns the election would be won on the doorstep.

And the UBP is now putting in much more effort there having lost out on legwork in recent elections. The source said: ?Last time the party said all the right things but the PLP?s 98 election was a two-term victory ? people weren?t going to throw out the first black Government at the first attempt. ?It?s a toss up right now, very close. Less than 200 people decided the last election and one can expect that this election will hang on the same knife-edge.?

THE ISSUES

With much promised in the key issue of housing Dr. Brown, who has labelled it as high priority, is likely to want to see more of the PLP?s larger projects online in order to spike the guns of the Opposition who have returned to the theme time and again.

Recently Housing Minister David Burch boasted Government was well on target to building the ?330 units within 30 months? promised in the 2005 Throne Speech. However the PLP will want one or two of the larger developments such as Loughlands and Harbourside Village inhabited before it goes to the polls.Now officially a backburner issue for now Dr. Brown will have to get sovereignty back in the public mindset if the next election will be fought on that issue ? which may indicate he will go to the wire before calling an election. However, with the polls still indicating independence is a vote loser his astute political senses might point towards dropping the idea for this election ? even if it upsets some of his radical supporters.

Dr. Brown would love to be remembered as the Premier who took the Island to nationhood. But he would hate to go down in history as the first sitting PLP Premier to lead his party to defeat. And while the UBP might secretly hope the PLP does make independence the election issue as it is a sure-fire vote winner ? people will also remember the UBP has plenty of skeletons in this particular cupboard when the issue split the party asunder a decade ago.With Berkeley now built the PLP will feel on firmer ground on the education front, even though graduation rates are nothing to boast about ? a point the UBP will no doubt hammer home. CedarBridge mould could prove a moot point.

While the PLP can be criticised for being slow to tackle it the building, with possible flaws in its roof design, went up under the UBP. The Bermuda College debacle, with claims of spiralling expense accounts, has proven a running sore which doesn?t look likely to go away ? no matter how many new college board chairmen are appointed.This has always been seen as the PLP?s trump card and the UBP fear Ewart Brown has set out his stall with the onslaught against Grant Gibbons in the House two weeks ago. But after eight years in office serious lingering inequalities in the workplace might lead to questions about what the PLP have actually done about tackling institutionalised racism.

The UBP has tried hard to steal the PLP?s clothes on the race issue by championing economic empowerment but as the incumbent the PLP has picked up the kudos for initiatives such as the North Hamilton economic zone. Again this could prove a double-edged sword for both parties. The term limit issue is looming. The PLP can buoy up support from core supporters with get tough noises over immigration. Yet work permits have risen under the PLP and the party can?t afford to alienate international business by turfing out too many people.

The UBP have scored cheap points about the declining number of Bermudians in the workforce while ignoring the demographics of Bermuda?s declining birth rate. Despite pledging to be open with the media when he was appointed Premier, Ewart Brown has been decidedly selective about who he talks to. Expect the media bashing to be ratcheted up as the election approaches.