Readers may be scratching their heads in confusion over the latest graduation figures released by the Ministry of Education as they seem to contradict earlier statements.

Last week's figures claimed an 80 percent pass rate this year, compared to 58 percent in 2006. Previously, the Ministry and the Hopkins Report on the public school system reported a 52 percent pass rate last year. In a bid to clarify the situation, has come up with these calculations:

* 309 students entered S4 in 2005. 148 left with Bermuda School Certificate (BSC) the following June. This shows a graduation rate of almost 48 percent. After summer school, 12 more students received a BSC, giving a grand total of 160 graduates. From a class of 309, that gives a pass rate of almost 52 percent.

* To work it out based on the preferred US method, 394 students entered S1 in 2002 and 148 left with a BSC four years later, giving a graduation rate of 37.5 percent. If we say 160 left with a BSC after summer school then we have a 'true' graduation rate of 40.6 percent for 2006.

* 213 students entered S4 in 2006 and 170 must have left with a BSC this summer if the Ministry's claim of an 80 percent pass rate is correct. The Ministry has not explained why the S4 intake was so small in 2006, resulting in 96 fewer students starting S4 than the previous year. The number who entered S1 in 2003 is not known so the US method cannot be used.

* If we take last year's 52 percent pass rate and assume this year's 80 percent pass rate is correct, that gives us a difference of 28 percentage points. Expressed as a percent increase it is almost 54 percent.

* 170 students graduated this year compared to 160 last year, meaning there has been a 6.25 percent increase in the actual number of students graduating.